NASA says there in no chance asteroid 2024 YR4 will hit the moon in 2032
A 60-metre-long asteroid will not crash into the moon in 2032, NASA analysts say after refining its orbit.
NASA has issued a welcomed all-clear, saying there is now zero chance that asteroid 2024 YR4 will crash into the moon in 2032.
The space agency had been predicting a 4.3 per cent chance of a direct hit.
But observations by the Webb Space Telescope in February helped scientists refine the asteroid’s orbit.
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By continuing you agree to our Terms and Privacy Policy.This new information indicates that the asteroid will miss the moon by 21,200km on December 22, 2032.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first discovered in late 2024 by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS), a NASA-funded survey station located in Chile.
Scientists last year ruled out a collision with our planet anytime in the next century but kept the moon as a possible target.
The asteroid is about 60 metres across.
Initial measurements suggested the object had a small but notable chance of striking Earth in the future. As additional observations from telescopes around the world were gathered throughout 2025, scientists were able to refine its orbit.
Those updated analyses eventually ruled out any significant risk to Earth on December 22, 2032. Current models also show no threat from the asteroid over the next century.
The process highlights how planetary defence monitoring works. Newly discovered asteroids often carry temporary impact probabilities when their orbits are still uncertain according to Interesting Engineering.
