THE NEW YORK TIMES: Trump and Xi: Beneath the pomp and niceties lies most consequential geopolitical rivalry

Just weeks ago, after the US military seized a ship in the Strait of Hormuz, President Donald Trump said he suspected that the Chinese government was attempting to sneak a “gift” past the US blockade and into the hands of Iran.

“I thought I had an understanding with President Xi,” Trump said in an interview with CNBC, calling himself “surprised.” He added: “But that’s all right. That’s the way war goes, right?”

China has rejected Trump’s accusation. But the incident underscores the uneasy nature of the relationship between Trump and President Xi Jinping as the US president arrives in Beijing for a summit between two of the world’s most powerful men.

Trump, who has long wanted to court relationships with the world’s strongmen, has cultivated what he describes as a friendship with Xi, referring to China’s leader as “a brilliant leader.”

“He’s a wonderful guy,” Trump said this week before departing for Beijing. “He’s a friend of mine.”

Xi, in turn, has flattered Trump with ceremony on a scale rarely afforded foreign leaders, turning a state visit during his first term into a theatrical display of pomp and symbolism.

On Wednesday, Trump was greeted by a military honour guard as well as men and women dressed in blue and white waving Chinese and American flags.

But beneath the public displays of warmth, the two men are at the centre of the most consequential geopolitical rivalry of the 21st century. Their relationship is marked just as much by mistrust and confrontation as it is niceties.

For each public compliment, there is another manoeuvre in a trade war between the two countries. For each assertion of deep friendship, there is an uneasiness about the other’s military ambitions. For each attempt at flattery, there is an accompanying suspicion.

“Xi Jinping is not somebody who’s very sentimental about personal relationships, even inside his inner circle, never mind with what he sees as the leader of his main geopolitical foe,” said Jonathan A Czin, chair of foreign policy studies at the Brookings Institution.

“He purged the most senior leader of the military this winter. If he’s willing to get rid of a guy like that, that he’s known for decades and has a deep relationship with, I think it’s very instructive about how he approaches a guy like Trump.”

The relationship between Trump and Xi has had its ups and downs since the US President’s first term. There is rarely an interaction without some surprises.

The two men first met at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida in 2017. Trump greeted Xi with a military honour guard and a lavish dinner.

While they were enjoying what Trump called “the most beautiful piece of chocolate cake that you’ve ever seen,” the US President informed Xi that the United States had launched missile strikes against Syria in response to President Bashar Assad’s chemical weapons attack in the Syrian civil war.

If the announcement was meant to catch the Chinese President off guard, Xi appeared unfazed.

“We are so used to thinking of Trump as being very idiosyncratic, very different from his predecessors,” Czin said. “But from a Chinese perspective, this looks very similar to President Obama’s intervention in Libya and President Bush’s intervention in Iraq. This is just the United States doing in a more intense way what it’s done for most of the century.”

Trump emerged from that meeting claiming they had developed “great chemistry.”

Months later, Xi returned the favour with an extravagant state visit to Beijing unlike any reception afforded to Trump’s recent predecessors.

During what Chinese officials called a “state visit-plus,” Trump toured the Forbidden City in a highly symbolic gesture emphasising imperial grandeur and historic continuity. The two men strolled through ancient palace courtyards as television cameras followed closely behind.

Chinese officials arranged a private opera performance and seated Trump beside Xi in a setting meant to project intimacy and prestige.

During that trip, Trump said he gave China “great credit” for taking advantage of the United States on trade.

“I don’t blame China,” he said. “After all, who can blame a country for being able to take advantage of another country for the benefit of its citizens?”

Rush Doshi, a researcher at Georgetown University and at the Council on Foreign Relations, said it was important for both leaders to exit any negotiations in a manner that saved face for themselves and their countries. That is why Trump has often praised China’s actions, even if they are hostile to America’s interests.

“His general impulse is to say, in effect: ‘I am a worldly pragmatist who understands that what they’ve done isn’t personal against me. It’s just business,’” Doshi said. “That’s the way in which he downplays these significantly escalatory acts.”

Trump arrived in China on Wednesday, and he departs Friday. Anna Kelly, a White House spokesperson, said there would again be moments of great symbolism on the trip but that Trump would also return with economic deals beneficial to Americans.

“This will be a visit of tremendous symbolic significance,” Kelly said.

“But of course, President Trump never travels for symbolism alone. The American people can expect the president to deliver more good deals on behalf of our country. These agreements will further rebalance trade with China while putting American workers, farmers and families first and safeguarding US economic strength in national security.”

The relationship between the two men has grown more tense. Trump’s trip was initially delayed because of his war against Iran, a major supplier of oil to China.

Since his first meeting with Trump, Xi has expressed more warmth for Russian President Vladimir Putin, calling him my “best and bosom friend,” and recently the Chinese president criticized Trump, though not by name, for flouting international law and returning “to the law of the jungle.”

And Trump’s return to office brought an intensely confrontational economic agenda toward China, reviving tensions between the world’s two largest economies.

Within months of taking office, Trump imposed sweeping new tariffs on imports from a wide range of countries, with China receiving some of the harshest. Despite the aggressive talk, both governments eventually moved toward negotiations.

Tariffs are expected to be a major topic on the agenda this week.

Perhaps at no point were the personal tensions on greater display than last year when Xi signaled that he was shoring up his own alliances against US interests when he hosted the leaders of Russia and North Korea for a military parade.

Trump addressed Xi in a comment about it on social media, which read in part, “Please give my warmest regards to Vladimir Putin, and Kim Jong Un, as you conspire against The United States of America.”

In remarks in the Oval Office, Trump took pains to brush off the striking show of solidarity among America’s adversaries. He praised the parade as “beautiful,” and “very, very impressive.”

“I understood the reason they were doing it, and they were hoping I was watching, and I was watching,” Trump told reporters. “My relationship with all of them is very good.”

Melanie Hart, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub, called Trump’s reaction to the gathering “the most public expression of FOMO” — or fear of missing out — “we’ve ever seen from a US president.”

“Trump seems to think he can charm Xi Jinping,” she said. “But Xi is not a relationship guy. Xi really looks at the United States as China’s main rival at a systemic level. Trump really wants Xi Jinping to like him, and Xi couldn’t care less.”

Even so, Trump expects to be greeted in Beijing with great fanfare, and hopes to return the favour for Xi when the Chinese leader visits Washington later this year.

The US President said he hopes to show off a renovated Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool to Xi. But he expressed disappointment that his signature project, a ballroom attached to the White House, will not be built in time for a lavish welcome.

“I only wish we had the ballroom finished,” Trump said before departing for China.