Former President Donald Trump, after assassination attempt and a string of wins, makes his entrance

A sombre Donald Trump — his right ear covered by a small white bandage — strode into the Republican National Convention on Monday evening, lightly pumping his right fist and gently waving the same hand.

The crowd was primed for the former president. They cheered as the announcer introduced Lee Greenwood, who sings Trump’s walk-on music, God Bless the USA, and some stood on chairs as they craned to capture video of Trump as he entered Milwaukee’s Fiserv Forum.

But Trump himself was uncharacteristically subdued and visibly emotional, acknowledging the crowd with waves and fist pumps and occasional thumbs up as he repeatedly mouthed “thank you” and slowly climbed the stairs to the suite where his family and several friends stood waiting.

There, he first shook hands with former Fox News host Tucker Carlson and Byron Donalds from the House of Representatives, before clasping hands with his eldest son Donald Trump Jr, and pointing at another son Eric. He turned to his left to greet Senator JD Vance , his newly minted running mate, and House Speaker Mike Johnson.

Then Trump sat and seemed to take in the moment, glancing about the cavernous hall.

Trump appeared before the convention crowd almost exactly 48 hours after a gunman attempted to assassinate him Saturday night at his rally in Pennsylvania, a tragedy that killed one attendee, injured two others, and left Trump safe but injured.

Still, Trump’s emotional and highly anticipated entrance was a fitting culmination to a two-and-a-half-week stretch — starting with the first presidential debate on June 27 — during which the former president scored multiple crucial victories.

At their first debate stage face-off, President Joe Biden delivered a halting and politically devastating performance — shuffling on to the stage, whispering and trailing off, losing his train of thought and generally prompting a Democratic Party existential crisis over whether the occupant of the Oval Office should remain their nominee.

Four days later, the Supreme Court ruled presidents have “absolute” immunity for clearly official acts, a decision along ideological lines that sent Trump’s indictment for allegedly trying to subvert the 2020 election back to a lower court, postponing any decision until after November’s election.

And on Monday, only hours before the Republican National Convention officially opened in Milwaukee, US District Judge Aileen M Cannon dismissed the classified documents case against Trump, which legal experts and many Democratic and Republican strategists had viewed as the strongest and most clear-cut of the indictments Trump is facing.

Even Trump was surprised by the case being dismissed, according to two people close to him, who, like others interviewed for this report, spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe their conversations with the nominee. Trump’s team had expected the legal fight to continue for months.

“The man just has an extraordinary amount of luck,” said Richard Porter, an RNC committeeman from Illinois. “He just doesn’t stop. He’s relentless. He just keeps going. And things are falling his way finally.”

After the Supreme Court’s immunity decision, some of Trump’s advisers began privately saying they believed God was on his side. And after he was shot, Trump told advisers that “God saved me,” according to a person who talked to him on the phone.

“This would be an excellent day for him to buy a lottery ticket,” said David Axelrod, a Democratic strategist who served as a top aide under former president Barack Obama.

Axelrod added that Cannon, a Trump appointee, “has been like a slot machine that continues to pay off”— right down to her decision to dismiss the case against Trump on the first day of the Republican convention.

Trump had been leading in most battleground-state polls — albeit sometimes within the margin of error — even before the debate, and an AARP (formerly the American Association of Retired Persons) poll last week found Biden down six points to Trump in a five-way race in Wisconsin.

Only a few months ago, Trump’s advisers had been bracing for a gruelling year of multiple criminal trials and grappling with daunting questions: How would Trump logistically be able to campaign while spending much of his time in court? How would multiple potentially guilty verdicts affect his polling? And how would Trump respond to seeing former and current aides on the witness stand?

Many of his advisers feared they would have to testify against him. Some of his lawyers had even hired lawyers themselves, and aides scrambled to avoid controversial discussions with the former president — hoping to remain subpoena-free.

There were sombre discussions about who might be wearing a wire. Trump’s team would regularly make a grim inquiry: Was anyone else about to be indicted?

“We control what we can control,” Susie Wiles, one of Trump’s top advisers, said during an early 2024 staff meeting, according to people who heard her comments.

Try not to worry, she continued, about things you cannot control.

In the run-up to the Republican convention, however, the events that Trump’s team could not control ultimately accrued in their candidate’s favour. Biden’s debate stumbles were self-inflicted, and the two court decisions provided seismic relief to Trump and his aides.

Trump made some of his own luck, Axelrod said. The former president installed judges on the Supreme Court who would be more likely to agree with him; had the instincts to strike a pose of strength and defiance before Secret Service agents rushed him offstage Saturday; and largely allowed Biden to self-destruct during the debate, Axelrod said.

And on Monday afternoon, Trump managed to keep secret his vice-presidential choice, announcing that he had selected Vance to be his running mate on his own social media platform.

Even Saturday’s terrifying moments of political violence — hardly auspicious by any measure — resulted in an iconic photo of Trump, and helped inspire his supporters and further consolidate his party behind him.

“The juxtaposition of that first few minutes of the debate in Atlanta and that heroic shot of him in Pennsylvania are the bookends of the Trump campaign right now,” Axelrod said. “It’s the prevailing dynamic of this campaign.”

Several Trump advisers have privately expressed amazement about how many events have fallen their way recently. Among Democrats, meanwhile, the effort to persuade Biden to exit the presidential race continued to slog ahead Monday.

In this moment, Trump seems as close as he’s ever been to returning to the White House, where he has promised to be a dictator on “Day One,” round up and deport millions of undocumented immigrants, root out the so-called “Deep State,” and carry out his vision of retribution on political enemies.

One prominent Democrat who speaks often to top leaders in the party described the mood as “morose” as the party watched Trump’s political fortunes seem to continue to wax, while Biden’s appeared to wane amid his refusal to step aside.

“The prevailing sentiment is we’re doomed,” this person said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to share a candid opinion.

After the attempted assassination, Trump’s team discussed having him speak at the convention Monday night, in what they hoped would be a unifying show of resilience.

In the end, Trump merely waved at and acknowledged the crowd, mouthing “Thank you” and occasionally flashing a tight-mouthed smile.

But the moment served its intended purpose. Inside the Fiserv convention centre, the crowd marvelled at the moment.

“He’s very lucky. I think there’s a little bit of intervention from up there,” said Rick Lacey, a delegate from Trump’s home state of Florida. “You can feel the momentum building up day by day.”

As Trump prepared to take his seat, the crowd first broke into chants of “USA! USA! USA!” before switching to the words a blood-spattered Trump had uttered onstage at his Saturday rally as Secret Service surrounded him and prepared to usher him to safety: “Fight! Fight! Fight!”