Hurricane Erin forecast to churn up dangerous swells and winds from Florida to New England

Hurricane Erin churned slowly toward the eastern U.S. on Tuesday, stirring up treacherous waves that already have led to dozens of water rescues and shut down beaches along the coast in the midst of summer’s last hurrah.

While forecasters remain confident the centre of the monster storm will remain far offshore, the outer edges are likely to bring damaging tropical-force winds, large swells and life-threatening rip currents into Friday.

Warnings about rip currents have been posted from Florida to the New England coast with New York City closing its beaches to swimming on Wednesday and Thursday. Several Long Island and New Jersey beaches also will be off-limits.

“Enjoy the shore, enjoy this beautiful weather but stay out of the water,” New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy said Tuesday.

Off Massachusetts, Nantucket Island could see waves of more than 3 metres later this week. But the biggest threat is along the barrier islands of North Carolina’s Outer Banks where evacuations have been ordered. One town asked residents to secure their trash cans so they don’t float or blow away.

Erin has become an unusually large and deceptively worrisome storm while moving through the Caribbean, with its tropical storm winds stretching 370 kilometers from its core. Forecasters expect it will grow larger in size as it moves through the Atlantic and curls north.

It continued to lash the Turks and Caicos Islands on Tuesday, where government services were suspended a day earlier and residents were ordered to stay home, along with parts of the Bahamas before its expected turn toward Bermuda and the US.

By Tuesday, Erin had lost some strength from previous days and dropped to a Category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 170km/h, the National Hurricane Centre in Miami said. It was about 915 kilometres south-southeast of North Carolina’s Cape Hatteras.

Tropical storm watches were issued for Virginia and North Carolina as well as Bermuda.

Rough ocean conditions already have been seen along the US coast — at least 60 swimmers were rescued from rip currents Monday at Wrightsville Beach, near Wilmington, North Carolina.

The biggest swells along the East Coast are expected over the coming two days.

Climate scientists say Atlantic hurricanes are now much more likely to rapidly intensify into powerful and catastrophic storms fuelled by warmer oceans. Two years ago, Hurricane Lee grew with surprising speed while barrelling offshore through the Atlantic, unleashing violent storms and rip currents.

On the Outer Banks, Erin’s storm surge could swamp roads with waves of 4.6 metres. Mandatory evacuations were ordered on Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands. More than 1,800 people had left Ocracoke by ferry since Monday.

North Carolina Governor Josh Stein warned residents along the coast to be prepared in case they need to evacuate and declared a state of emergency on Tuesday. Bulldozers shored up the dunes, and on Hatteras, the owners of a pier removed a few planks, hoping the storm surge will pass through without tearing up the structure.

Most residents decided to stay even though memories are still fresh of Hurricane Dorian in 2019 when 2.1 metres of water swamped Ocracoke, said Randal Mathews, who serves as a county commissioner.

Tom Newsom, who runs fishing charters on Hatteras, said he’s lived there almost 40 years and never evacuated, and wasn’t going to this time either.

Comparing this hurricane to others he has seen, he called this one a “nor’easter on steroids.”

Bryan Philips, who also lives on the island, said he’d evacuate if they were getting a direct hit. He expects the roads will be open by the weekend to make sure one of the last summer weekends isn’t lost.

“That’s their main concern: getting tourists back on the island as soon as possible,” said Mr Philips.

The Outer Banks’ thin stretch of low-lying barrier islands that jut into the Atlantic are increasingly vulnerable to storm surges. There are concerns that parts of the main highway could be washed out, leaving some routes impassible for days. And dozens of beach homes already worn down from chronic beach erosion and the loss of protective dunes could be at risk, said David Hallac, superintendent of the Cape Hatteras National Seashore.

Farther south, no evacuations had been ordered, but some beach access points were closed as forecasts call for water levels up to 3 feet (1 meter) over normal high tides for several days.