SA election 2026: All eyes on crucial poll where prize for second is up for grabs

Voting has opened in South Australia, where a State election is taking place that could send shockwaves through the political landscape.

Peter Malinauskas and Labor are expected to cruise to victory, but it’s the political battle on the right that will spark the big headlines.

A Newspoll conducted in the final weeks of the campaign had Labor’s primary vote at 40 per cent, One Nation at 22 per cent and the Liberal Party on 16 per cent.

In a final opinion poll, released on Friday, YouGov forecast a 59-41 win for Labor on a two-party preferred basis against both the Liberals and One Nation, a 4.4 per cent swing in its favour.

If this polling holds up and the Liberal Party is relegated to third in the popular vote, today could mark a watershed moment in Australia’s political history.

Pauline Hanson’s One Nation has managed an uncharacteristically slick campaign in South Australia.

Previous State and Federal polls have been marred by scores of candidates quitting or being sacked during election campaigns.

This time though, something is different. Only one candidate — Aoi Baxter — was dumped during the campaign.

It emerged late on Friday that Mr Baxter, a candidate for the seat of Adelaide, had allegedly failed to appear in court over allegations he inappropriately touched a woman in the UK.

It was the only blemish in an otherwise spotless campaign for One Nation.

Former Liberal Senator Cory Bernadi has teamed up with Hanson as the State leader and is running in the number one spot on One Nation’s Upper House ticket.

Hanson said the major parties were worried about the One Nation factor and agreed the election would be a barometer of the party’s popularity.

“I’ve been here for the last week, and at a polling booth now the on-the-ground feeling is extremely strong,” she told Sydney radio 2GB on Friday.

Mr Bernardi said the party had given people hope and would be the strongest voice for all South Australians.

“People have had enough of being ignored by the Labor and Liberal uniparty … and had enough of their desperate attacks on One Nation,” he said.

“They know we’re listening to them about the cost of living, about mass immigration and the housing crisis, about net zero and the cost of electricity, about fuel shortages hurting our farmers and regional communities.”

Almost 30 per cent of the state’s 1.3 million enrolled voters cast their ballot in the first five days of early voting, while another 174,000 (13.2 per cent) had requested postal voting, the SA Electoral Commission said.

Flinders University public policy associate lecturer Josh Sunman said One Nation’s discipline had been the surprise story of the campaign.

He said One Nation had delivered targeted messaging and candidate discipline, and “I was expecting a lot more candidate scandals and meltdowns”.

Liberal leader Ashton Hurn took over the role just 103 days before the election.

“They have to balance taking on Labor with One Nation, who are just eating away their primary, but they haven’t been able to advance a coherent campaign narrative,” Mr Sunman said.

However, Liberal Mr Hurn had done an admirable job of trying to present a credible alternative premier, he said.

Adelaide University emeritus professor of politics Clem Macintyre said the rise and rise of One Nation had the potential to create a watershed moment in Australian politics, and the end of two-party politics at a federal level.

“If they do make a breakthrough, they’re going to have to work hard to be a more serious and viable alternative government,” he said.

“It’s more frustration with the major parties — I think we can still say One Nation is a party of disaffected voters.”

Stay tuned to The Nightly for all the rolling coverage of the election.