The Liberals face a reckoning in South Australia as Peter Malinauskas and Ashton Hurn head to the polls

There was an instant when the leader of the South Australian Liberal Party, Ashton Hurn, seemed lost for words — a rare moment for a woman for whom talking comes as easy as breathing.

Perhaps hoping to break through his easy-going persona, Ms Hurn had spent most of a televised debate on Wednesday interrupting the Premier, Peter Malinauskas.

After about half an hour, Mr Malinauskas decided to flip the dynamic. Accusing the opposition of holding contradictory positions on climate change, he demanded to know if the state Liberal Party supports ending Greenhouse gas emissions overall, the policy known as net zero.

“I’m happy to explain to you the difference between net zero and net renewables,” he said. “Do you not know?”

Ms Hurn paused and slowly shook her head left and right — the universal gesture for no.

“I’ve been extremely, I have been, I have been extraordinarily clear,” she said, fighting off interruptions. “Net zero from a South Australian perspective, Premier, we don’t have any coal.”

The exchange, which Labor called “Ashton’s deer in the headlights moment”, helps explain why the Labor Party is expected to reduce the Liberals to a parliamentary rump when the election concludes Saturday.

Mr Malinauskas’s investments in roads, water and housing has contributed to an economic revival in a state once considered a basket case. The population is growing, unemployment is low, house prices are rising and the state has attracted big events, including a motor cycle grand prix and LIV golf tournament.

For the first time in decades, South Australians feel the rest of Australia is paying attention to a state that last year produced the strongest economic growth in the nation, according to calculations by the Commonwealth Bank.

Business confidence in the state is 15 points higher than nationally, the largest gap in more than 25 years, according to surveys conducted by the South Australian Business Chamber.

“Having a very popular local premier has helped raise the profile of the state at the national level,” the business group’s chief executive, Andrew Kay, told The Nightly. “The sense is that this Labor government is a business-friendly government.”

The government’s image of calm confidence contrasts with the Liberal Party, which has been damaged by feuding at the state and federal levels.

The energetic but inexperienced Ms Hurn took over just three months ago. When the party last week removed a Christian candidate caught on video criticising gay marriage and an anti-nazi law, a Liberal senator complained about infringements on free speech. The disagreement was seen as another example of the party’s disunity.

Two polls published this week estimated Labor support at 59 to 60 per cent once preferences are allocated. The Liberal Party is running third behind One Nation, according to the YouGov and Fox & Hedgehog polls, although the electoral system will make it difficult for Pauline Hanson’s anti-immigration party to win seats, experts say.

The Liberals could be left with as few as five seats in the 47-seat parliament, according to pollster Michael Horner.

Even by the standards of South Australia, a traditionally left-wing state, that would be a disaster for the Liberals. It would leave South Australia as the weakest state for Coalition representation, even behind West Australia, where Liberals and Nationals hold only 14 per cent of the lower house seats.

(The National Party has no parliamentary representation in South Australia.)

Adding to the Liberals’ headaches, One Nation has recruited candidates for every seat, who will win over many traditional Liberal voters .

“One Nation won’t win in Adelaide,” former ABC election analyst Antony Green told The Nightly. “They won’t be able to pass Labor preferences but they will cannibalise the Liberal vote in safe Labor seats. They will potentially get 30 to 35 per cent in some seats in the regions but they may be cut off at the pass by some independents. It’s a bit hard to see where they will win a seat.”

Mr Malinauskas dismissed the right-wing party this week as being led by “someone who lives in Queensland”, a reference to founder Pauline Hanson.

The pair had a brief but polite encounter yesterday in the foyer of the Advertiser newspaper. Senator Hanson offered to cooperate on passing laws, which the premier said he was open to but they might “violently” disagree.

Undercutting the accusations of being an out-of-state political phenomenon, One Nation has recruited a well-known South Australian ex-Liberal, Cory Bernardi, as state leader.

Mr Bernardi has focused on house and apartment prices, which reached an average of $938,100 last year, surpassing Victoria, a more heavily populated and geographically smaller state. The former senator argues both major parties, and what he refers to as the “uniparty leadership”, ignore that cutting immigration will relieve pressure on the property market.

Knowing many young people despair at their prospects of owning a home, the Liberal and Labor parties are promising to cut the stamp duty on property purchases, an average tax of $45,425.

Ms Hurn wants to extend stamp duty exemptions to second-hand houses and apartments, an approach designed to help people who want to move into their parents’ suburbs.

Labor’s plan is directed at the other end of life. It promises to reduce stamp duty for over-65-year-olds buying new apartments or houses. The objective is to encourage retirees to move into smaller homes, freeing up houses for young families.

Property developers prefer Labor’s policy, which they hope will lead to more apartments, putting downward pressure on prices.

“The Liberal stamp duty reforms don’t favour supply the same the way the Labor Party’s ones do,” Urban Development Institute of Australia chief executive Liam Golding told The Nightly.

Mr Malinauskas raised the competing policies in his debate this week with Ms Hurn, citing a 20-storey apartment building the government is pushing in the Adelaide suburb of Glenside. He was able to name the streets bordering the property.

“You’re opposed to it,” he said. “You’re out there campaigning against it.”

Ms Hurn denied she opposes property development.

“All the supply measures that the premier has announced, we support those,” she said.

When the opposition agrees with the government on a central election issue, it may struggle to convince voters to switch sides.