Black Friday: Sales to hit $6.8b as Aussies drive huge retail spending despite rising inflation

Australian retailers are tipped to book a badly needed $6.8 billion windfall from Black Friday to Cyber Monday.

Around 6 million Australians are expected to visit the shops or search online for a bargain as the Black Friday mania stretches from cheap holidays and airfares to electronics, clothes, and furniture.

Expanded from its US origins, the promotional period has come to mark the beginning of the crucial Christmas shopping season in Australia and around the world.

The chief executive of the Australian Retailers Association, Chris Rodwell, encouraged Australians to avoid cheap Chinese online retailers such as Temu and Shein that have moved aggressively into Australia over the last 12 months.

“Unlike overseas ultra cheap digital platforms, our local and national retailers invest in training, wages, innovation and community connection — that’s worth backing this season,” he said.

“Black Friday has firmly cemented its place on Australia’s retail calendar — delivering critical cashflow to discretionary retailers and small businesses who’ve faced subdued consumer activity for the past two years.”

Women make up 3.5 million of total shoppers, versus men at 2.5 million.

Crucial month

With consumers expected to cut back spending early next year, the next four weeks will be the most important of the year for an industry that contributes $430 billion to the economy each year and is the nation’s largest private sector employer.

According to consulting firm Deloitte, around 44 per cent of Australian retailers will participate in Black Friday this year, up 3 per cent from last year.

“Despite inflation steadily increasing over the back half of the year, the expectation of record sales this Black Friday weekend suggests Australians are still spending as much as ever,” said Cameron McCormack, a senior portfolio manager at investment giant VanEck.

Total Black Friday sales are tipped to climb 4 per cent from last year, helped by three interest rate cuts in 2025. Sales might have been higher if rising rental, energy, and wage bills had not driven up inflation 3.8 per cent in the year ended October 30.

On the share market those retailers leveraged to younger shoppers have struggled in 2026 as Gen Y is hit hardest by rising rents and food inflation.

Among the best-performing retailers on the local share market are electronics giant JB Hi-Fi and discount jeweller Lovisa.

Their shares have surged 112 per cent and 206 per cent respectively over the last five years.

But shares in Accent Group, the retailer behind fast-fashion brands Glue Store and Nude Lucy and the Hype DC footwear stores, have plunged 58 per cent in 2025.

On November 21, Accent suggested it was discounting goods to tempt younger shoppers facing cost of living pressures into making purchases.

Other retailers more closely aligned to wealthy Baby Boomers have performed well, with shares in national airline Qantas Airways hitting a record high in 2025 and adding 13.5 per cent over the last 12 months.

Mixed outlook

According to the latest Westpac-Melbourne Institute November survey, mortgage holders will tighten their belts in 2026 as the fading likelihood of any more rate cuts is turning them negative.

However, people with home loans were the exception in turning negative, as other consumer respondents remained relatively positive.

Economists forecast economic growth was a weak 2.1 per cent year-on-year in the September quarter, when data is published Wednesday.

Shares were set to snap a four-day winning streak on Friday, with Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 pointing 0.1 per cent lower near the closing bell.