Where retirees are moving out - and family buyers are moving in

Australia's aging population has been reshaping the housing market for years.

Over the past five years, the number of Australians aged 65 and over has surged by 16.6 percent, and many of these cashed-up retirees - sitting on decades of property gains - have been a dominant force at auctions and open homes nationwide.

But new research by OurTop10 suggests the tide may be turning in some surprising areas.

The analysis pinpoints specific city suburbs where retiree populations are declining - signalling that long-time homeowners are moving on, downsizing, or shifting to regional lifestyle destinations. For younger families, that could mean fewer bidders and more choice in suburbs once considered out of reach.

"This research reveals why timing matters in property strategy," explains Simon Ma, CEO of OurTop10.

"Rather than following established demographic trends, families should identify areas where year-on-year changes signal new opportunities. A 4 percent decline this year in Holland Park West or Glenfield could be the start of a multi-year trend that creates sustained buying advantages."

A changing urban map

Despite the tree-change trend, 68% of Australians still live in capital cities, and most working families remain tied to metropolitan areas for employment. That makes finding "hidden gems" within city limits essential for families chasing affordability without giving up career prospects or access to urban amenities.

According to Ma, the key is recognising when demographic patterns shift.

"Demographic trends create windows of opportunity," he says. "Families who identify and act on current-year declines in over-65 populations can secure quality homes before these trends become widely recognised - and competition returns."

OurTop10's national research examined suburbs with more than 1,000 residents and focused on detached housing markets rather than inner-city apartments. The findings revealed seven capital city hotspots where the over-65 population is shrinking - and where families might find the path to home ownership a little smoother.

Brisbane: Retirees move out, families move in

Queensland's capital presents the most compelling opportunity for family buyers. Even though Brisbane's overall retiree population is growing rapidly, 27 of its 237 suburbs have seen declines in the past year - the highest proportion of any major city.

Top 5 Brisbane areas with declining over-65 populations:

Hover over each pin to see Population Growth and Distance to Brisbane. Map: ABS Regional Population 2024Source: OurTop10Embed Created with Datawrapper

Holland Park West leads with a sustained five-year decline, offering proximity to the city's south with established infrastructure and good schools. Northern suburbs like Geebung show emerging potential for early movers.

"Holland Park West's sustained 9.6 percent decline over five years, accelerating to 4 percent this year, shows this isn't a temporary blip," Ma says.

"Meanwhile, areas like Geebung represent emerging opportunities where families can get ahead of established trends."

Sydney: Small shifts, big potential

Even in Sydney's notoriously competitive housing market, small demographic shifts can open up big opportunities. The OurTop10 data found several pockets across the city - including the Northern Beaches, south-west corridor, and Central Coast - where retirees are moving out in measurable numbers.

Top 5 Sydney areas with declining over-65 populations:

Hover over each pin to see Population Growth and Distance to Sydney.Source: OurTop10

Glenfield's consistent decline makes it a standout in Sydney's southwest, while Belrose represents a rare opening in the city's affluent northern corridor. Even the inner-east suburb of Kingsford is showing a retreat in its retiree base.

"Sydney's market is so competitive that any demographic shift becomes significant," Ma says. "Glenfield's consistent trend suggests genuine opportunities in areas with established infrastructure, while the declines in Kingsford and Belrose indicate that even affluent retirees are relocating."

Melbourne: Middle-ring suburbs on the move

Melbourne's over-65 population continues to grow at around 3 percent, just under the national average, but some suburbs are showing the opposite trend - particularly in the middle and outer rings.

Top 5 Melbourne areas with declining over-65 populations:

Hover over each pin to see Population Growth and Distance to Melbourne. Map: ABS Regional Population 2024Source: OurTop10Embed Created with Datawrapper

Clayton Central leads the nation for long-term decline in retiree residents, down almost 15 percent in five years.

Parkville's steep five-year fall suggests turnover may be stabilising, while Altona North and Glenroy offer middle-ring affordability.

"Clayton Central's combination of current and historical decline represents one of the most significant active opportunities we've identified," Ma says.

"When combined with emerging trends in areas like Altona North, it's clear Melbourne still offers strategic options for families willing to look beyond the obvious."

Perth: A rare pattern of decline

Perth has seen a 21 percent surge in retirees over the past five years - but some suburbs are bucking that trend, particularly around the inner and southeastern corridors.

Top 5 Perth areas with declining over-65 populations:

Hover over each pin to see Population Growth and Distance to Perth. Map: ABS Regional Population 2024Source: OurTop10Embed Created with Datawrapper

"Perth's concentrated declines are striking," Ma says.

"Bentley-Wilson-St James is showing consistent long-term movement, while close-to-city suburbs like Yokine and Wembley offer rare chances to buy into well-connected neighbourhoods."

Adelaide: Subtle signs of change

Adelaide is showing the least movement of all capital cities, with just five of 105 areas seeing a decline - making these shifts especially meaningful for early buyers.

Top 5 Adelaide areas with declining over-65 populations:

© OpenStreetMap contributors Hover over each pin to see Population Growth and Distance to Adelaide. Map: ABS Regional Population 2024Source: OurTop10Embed Created with Datawrapper

"Belair's hills setting shows the strongest current decline," says Ma. "Even North Adelaide, right near the city, is seeing retirees move on - that's a rare opportunity for young families to move closer to the action."

Hobart: Big swings in small numbers

Hobart's retiree growth rate is modest at just 2.6 percent, but certain suburbs are seeing sharper falls - particularly on the city's eastern and northern flanks.

Top 5 Hobart areas with declining over-65 populations:

Hover over each pin to see Population Growth and Distance to Hobart. Map: ABS Regional Population 2024Source: OurTop10Embed Created with Datawrapper

"Hobart presents a unique opportunity because modest citywide growth masks significant local change," Ma says. "Mornington & Warrane's 6 percent decline this year is a signal - retirees are moving, and families can take advantage of that turnover."

Canberra: Suburbs in transition

Even in Canberra's typically stable market, shifts are emerging - especially in the south and southwest.

Top 5 Canberra areas with declining over-65 populations:

Hover over each pin to see Population Growth and Distance to Canberra. Map: ABS Regional Population 2024Source: OurTop10Embed Created with Datawrapper

"Canberra's data reveals something fascinating about government town demographics," Ma notes.

"Many residents move there for work rather than lifestyle - so when retirement comes, there's often a natural inclination to relocate. That opens the door for the next generation of professionals and families."

What it means for buyers

While retirees continue to shape Australia's property market, OurTop10's findings suggest a subtle but powerful shift: in certain city suburbs, the competition may finally be easing.

For families priced out or fatigued by the intensity of recent years, these areas - from Brisbane's Holland Park West to Melbourne's Clayton Central - could mark the start of a new cycle.

"Families who act on these trends early," Ma concludes, "will be the ones looking back in five years, wondering how they managed to buy in just before everyone else caught on."