CAMERON MILNER: The pressure is on the Liberals to deliver an effective Budget reply

‘Twas the night before the last Albanese Budget and not a Coalition economic policy could be found.

Not surprising as Peter Dutton’s little helper and shadow treasurer is that political dilettante Angus Taylor.

As Albanese this week resumes his usual role of passenger in his own government Labor’s last hope of the side, Jim Chalmers, will deliver the Election Budget.

Albanese likes to be carried by his Labor colleagues, a bystander to the cost-of-living crisis swirling around his government as he sips another free drink, takes another upgrade, buys another property or plays some tennis with lobbyists while a synagogue burns down.

Albo’s life is lived in blissful ignorance all while wearing a “Yes to Albo” campaign polo.

While Chalmers has been burning the midnight oil with mean girl Katy Gallagher knocking the Budget into shape, it’s the Liberals who are most under pressure this week.

Dutton simply should be screaming ahead in the polls after twelve interest rate rises under Albanese and the election should be a referendum on the cost-of-living crisis that has seen so many Australians worse off than they were three years ago.

Instead, Dutton is left doing weird announcements like citizenship tests and announcing a referendum to expel about a dozen dual citizens to give cover to Angus Taylor who simply hasn’t done the work to craft an alternative economic narrative for the Coalition.

It’s a policy holding pattern that has to end by the Budget in reply speech on Thursday night as the Coalition actually lands a proper policy announcement focused squarely on cost of living relief for voters.

Taylor in the last week rose to face his critics with a marginal seat blitz that instead more resembled a plan to be “Net zero in 2025”.

His net zero campaign had zero new policies, zero answers. It did culminate in a trainwreck interview where he looked like he had zero idea. It did nothing to change the palpable climate of doubt that surrounds him.

By contrast Treasurer Chalmers has been handing out new commitments on cost of living while informing the electorate of the likely deficits for years to come. His honesty contrasts completely with that of his mentor Wayne “No cyclone” Swan.

Swan promised five Budget surpluses and couldn’t get even one up while Chalmers has delivered back-to-back surpluses and continues to impress as Labor’s best communicator.

We know that the Budget is printed, the numbers set. This is a huge week for both Chalmers and Taylor, a future Labor leader and the bloke who still thinks he should be drafted to lead.

Both will hone their lines, put finishing touches to press releases, even have time to listen to some music perhaps.

Chalmers will have a Spotify List curated by his local Rankin voters — Khe Sanh, Flame Trees, Sweet Child O’ Mine with a few of Jim’s personal Springsteen favourites, Born to Run, Dancing in the Dark and a homage to when he used “cut a bit loose”, I’m on Fire.

There won’t be any hubris of Glory Days yet given the election campaign to come.

Meanwhile Taylor will turn off the Mahler and Brahms and slip on his own playlist simply titled FIGJAM. Favourites like Danger Zone, Wuthering Heights and Genesis’s Invisible Touch humming away to “I’ve been waiting, waiting here so long, but thinking nothing…nothing could go wrong.

The Coalition keep promising they are keeping their powder dry for the formal campaign and Labor certainly set themselves a fortnight ago for a proper campaign start under the expert guidance of Paul Erickson.

Michelle Bullock’s Labor friendly interest rate cut. Tick. Free GP visits under a new Medicare deal. Tick. Eamon Fitzpatrick’s well briefed smear campaign to old mate in the Gallery, tick.

But now Labor must use the Budget as the re-launch of their campaign for minority government.

Labor though has been emboldened by what they perceive as the Coalition’s inability to annunciate an economic narrative. Albanese has been day dreaming of a victory of the mediocre and proving that weak and woke can get a second term.

Anyway, back to reality.

No poll, regardless of the headlines, says Labor can offset its likely losses with enough gains, so minority of some form is the only prospect after the first term of a slim Albanese majority, fuelled by policy Ozempic.

A majority equally was never on the cards for the Coalition despite some like Taylor getting well ahead of themselves.

Too much talent like Jason Falinski and Tim Wilson still sit outside Parliament having to eject Teals to get back on the frontbench to give Dutton a full bench.

Instead, Dutton, as observed by some of the sharpest commentators around, has a front bench team dominated with Morrison dregs and his weakest performers. Did anyone say Sussan Ley?

Chalmers knows this Budget can save Labor seats and earn him even more loyalty from grateful backbenchers. While Tony Burke is off printing Corflute campaign signs in red, green and black and Albanese is introducing salmon farming laws to insult the talented Tanya Plibersek, Chalmers will deliver the all-important Budget.

It might be quiet in Canberra tonight, but from tomorrow the Howitzers will be heard and a blitzkrieg election campaign finally gets underway, none too soon.

The Budget and even more critically the Budget reply will shape the early campaign gains of both sides as cost of living returns to centre stage and voters finally get their say on who is best able to manage the economy and whether they think they are better off than three years ago.