MARK RILEY: Though Turkey is taking COP31 home, Australia shouldn’t be too disheartened

Recep Tayyip Erdogan is not one to mince his words.

The President of Turkey’s message to Anthony Albanese in their contest to host next year’s 31st Conference Of the Parties is essentially “COP that up the bracket”.

Erdogan has played hard. He has been implacable and uncompromising.

And he won.

But Australia shouldn’t feel too disappointed.

Having been to many of these conferences over the years, including the snow-blown COP15 debacle in Copenhagen, I’m not sure why any city in its right mind would want to host one.

They are undoubtedly well-intentioned with the honourable objective of saving the planet, but they are run with all the rigorous efficiency one would expect from a post-Woodstock carnival of climate kooks.

Still, countries do fight over the right to host them.

The process to determine who does is as freewheeling and feral as some of the attendees.

For those not acquainted with the intricacies and absurdities of international diplomacy, particularly that of the United Nations variety, it could seem downright weird.

Any of the 198 member parties can bid for the hosting rights in any given year.

The decision on the “winner” — an arguable description in the first place — is made by consensus.

There is no vote.

And if two or more parties remain in the running at the end, with no consensus on who should host, then none of them do.

Instead, the hosting rights revert to the COP’s administrative capital — Bonn, Germany. It is a system based on the last slice of birthday cake principle.

“If you kids can’t decide who gets it, I’ll eat it!” yells Dad.

It gives each country an effective right of veto. They can deny any other country the right to host by simply refusing to pull out of the bidding.

And that is what was happening in the battle to host next year’s COP31.

Australia and Turkey were engaged in a game of chicken. And on Tuesday, Anthony Albanese blinked.

He conceded his two-way correspondence with Erdogan had failed to break the deadlock.

The Turkish leader was adamant he would not withdraw under any circumstances.

Albanese ministers say, sotto voce, that they know why.

It’s Erdogan’s wife, Ermine, who really wants to host COP. “She’s an avowed environmentalist,” they whisper. “It’s a vanity thing.”

But the same could be not unfairly said about Albanese.

The pursuit of COP has been something of a political vanity project for him, albeit with a streak of altruism.

He constructed Australia’s bid as a co-operative proposal that would share hosting rights with our imperilled Pacific neighbours.

Albanese ran hard on the issue during this year’s election campaign, emphasising the chasm between himself and Peter Dutton on climate action while at the same time painting himself as a munificent regional leader willing to share political “prestige” with his smaller partner nations.

And no issue is more important to the Pacific than climate. But Albanese is also a realist.

It was clear Turkey wasn’t going to back down. And he didn’t want to be the kid who jealously denied a bigger kid that piece of cake.

He and his senior advisers recently began constructing a path for Australia’s strategic retreat that would allow him to save face, while banking a big favour with Turkey to call in at some future time.

So, now we have the “compromise” announced by Climate Minister Chris Bowen at COP30 in Brazil yesterday.

Turkey hosts COP31. Erdogan officially become COP president. Bowen will have the curious title of “COP president for negotiations”. He will lead negotiations on draft texts of agreements and help select facilitators for meetings.

In diplomatic terms, it’s the equivalent of running second in a two-man race and being award a participation certificate.

The Pacific will host some off-Broadway meetings leading up to COP31.

In other words, we lost.

While that will be a hit to the Albanese Government’s collective ego, many within government will be privately relieved.

Hosting the conference in Adelaide was going to cost taxpayers about $2 billion.

That is a lot of taxpayers’ money.

Pauline Hanson nailed the hypocrisy of the meeting this week when she questioned whether Adelaide could accommodate the 644 fuel-guzzling, emission-spewing private jets the climate warriors will fly to the conference.

She, the Liberals, the Nationals and many others say Erdogan can have it.

And maybe it is best that we just cop this one up the bracket.

Mark Riley is the Seven Network’s political editor