CAMERON MILNER: Meet Andrew Hirst and Paul Erickson, the two men who are really fighting this election out

Cyclone Anthony stopped a certain calling of the Federal election on Monday.

Instead, there will be a Federal Budget and a May election.

What we know is that Labor was ready to go and take advantage of the momentum shift as Australian’s take comfort that interest rates were cut, even by the smallest 0.25 of a percentage point.

It was all timed so perfectly. The 60 Minutes puff pieces, the weekend spreads of Jodie and Albo and of course the days of mudslinging against Peter Dutton.

It’s also the only explanation for an hysterical Wayne Swan saying the Brisbane cyclone wasn’t a cyclone in a last minute effort to get Albo to still call the election.

As more than 300,000 people lost power and the local creeks and rivers have flooded across South East Queensland, Swan has proven as good at picking weather as achieving a Budget surplus.

Labor staffers spent the weekend sending selfies walking around Sydney while others like Treasurer Jim Chalmers were on the ground in his local electorate co-ordinating recovery efforts for his community.

Chalmers was photographed with sandbags in Logan showing the world he’s a lifter, not a leaner. He has promised a Budget for the burbs and really is Labor’s best performer, outshining his leader Anthony Albanese on a daily basis.

Dutton though also has time to reflect on the last few weeks and regroup. By any measure it’s been a shocker.

What on earth made him take Liberal party director Andrew Hirst’s advice and fly out of Brisbane to attend the billionaire Justin Hemmes’ fundraiser in the midst of the cyclone preparation? It just beggars belief.

Dutton has also been off-message and distracted from the core cost-of-living attack. There are no more votes to be had throwing red meat to the conservative base when the contest is in middle Australia where battlers are being crushed by Albanese’s inflation.

It’s also clear that Dutton has been single-handedly doing all the heavy lifting for the Opposition.

His shadow treasurer Angus Taylor spends almost as much time on his hair as Labor’s Sam Rae. Taylor is a serious weak link for the Liberals and no match for the talented Chalmers. Taylor’s big economic plan is free lunches for bosses at fancy restaurants — no wonder Chalmers ate him for lunch in question time.

Sussan Ley is also flaky as his deputy, having been been promoted beyond her abilities.

David Littleproud will win back Andrew Gee’s seat, but realistically the Nationals will struggle to add to the Coalition’s electoral count as they are already at electoral capacity.

But it’s the match up between the Hirst and Labor secretary Paul Erickson that should have Dutton most concerned.

Erickson is smart and ruthless when it comes to campaigns and uses social media to perfection as demonstrated in crucial by-election wins in Dunkley and Aston.

Hirst by contrast learnt everything from his time with Malcolm Turnbull while getting schooled on fake emails and the word “concocted”. Hirst got lucky in 2019 when Turnbull was again dumped for Morrison but then oversaw the worst electoral loss by the Liberals in over a generation in 2022.

Not only did he hand the keys to the Lodge to Albanese, he lost the Liberal family silverware to the teals. Yet he’s back as lead in Dutton’s saddle bags, advising him to sup with the 1 per cent in Sydney instead of filling sandbags with the Strathpine SES.

Erickson shrewdly knows if the election is about doubts over Dutton, rather than a referendum on cost of living and his weak leader, he has a chance of pulling off at least minority government.

Erickson knows there will be Labor losses, but if he can sandbag enough seats he can stem the electoral losses. That’s why Andrew Charlton holding Parramatta, Sally Sitou in Reid and Sam Rae in Hawke are all critical contests.

Dutton’s LNP machine has already delivered Queensland seats in spades, but he’s got to rely on the fraught NSW office and the stumblebum show that is still the Victorian Liberal division.

The WA State election result shows that even as voters swung hard against Labor that didn’t convert to Liberal votes.

There’s an old saying election guru Bruce Hawker used to like. “Only when you’ve said something so many times you are about to throw up saying it again has the voter heard it for the first time.”

The key is message discipline and saying it over and over and over again.

Bill Shorten did for Labor in 2016 what is being asked of Dutton in 2025.

To come back from a huge electoral loss at the previous election and win a huge number of seats. Shorten did just that against Turnbull and came within one seat of winning.

Albanese was a passenger in that campaign, but is witness to what’s possible with message discipline and relentless pursuit of a singular campaign message.

Erickson is a formidable campaigner and more than has Hirst’s measure, having engineered a victory for Albanese by running an election entirely on cost of living and running dead in key electorates where Labor preferences got Teals elected.

Dutton has a similar opportunity to run the campaign on just cost of living. Cyclone Alfred has been a blessing in disguise as he gets a second chance and the advantage of a March Budget that will refocus voters’ minds on economic management, fighting inflation and putting downward pressure on the cost of living.