LATIKA M BOURKE: Five to seven years before China moves on Taiwan, says former advisor to Japanese PM

Former Defence Force chief Angus Campbell says it is unlikely China will take “kinetic violent” action over Taiwan immediately.

And a former advisor to Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said a Chinese takeover of the self-governed island was likely between the next five to seven years.

China’s President Xi Jinping has ordered his military to be ready to take Taiwan by military force if necessary from next year.

But speaking at the Delphi Economic Forum underway in Greece and attended by The Nightly, retired General Angus Campbell, who is now Ambassador to the EU and NATO said a military conflict next year was unlikely.

“Certainly, China’s stated policy aspiration is to see, from its point of view, the return of Taiwan into China,” he said.

“I don’t, however, think that that is an immediate issue in a kinetic violent action.

“I think what we see at the moment is periodic cycles of squeezing, of a pressure campaign, of information and influence.

“And my sense will be that to the fullest extent possible, the aspiration of realising that policy intent from the Chinese leadership is to do so peacefully if at all possible.

“And I think there’s much more to see before they feel the danger that that is no longer a potential platform.”

Tomohiko Taniguchi who advised the late Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe, said under Xi Jinping, China would take Taiwan, in time.

“In the case of China, the country is no longer a one-party dictatorship,” he said.

“It is simply a one-person dictatorship, and Xi Jinping is very much keen to fulfil his own Chinese dream in about five, six, seven years and nothing of that Chinese dream could be complete without annexing Taiwan.

“So with that, a primary goal for Xi, Xi Jinping’s China is going to further escalate its influence operations.”

He said in the “very worst-case scenario”, North Korea and Russia would combine with China to launch simultaneous attacks on South Korea and Japan to prevent them from trying to help Taiwan.

“Russia is going to provoke Japanese northern area and North Korea is going to launch its cyber attack over South Korea, Japan’s banking systems and the like and those are the worst case scenarios,” he said.

“And tabletop exercises have been conducted many times and it’s really really difficult for Japan to do something to compete against those simultaneous challenges.”

He added that the Indo-Pacific and European theatres had converged, something recognised by a recent visit of NATO Ambassadors to Tokyo.

Nathan Atrill, a Taiwan analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute said that Xi’s 2027 deadline was misunderstood.

“2027 is often misunderstood as a war deadline. It is better understood as a capability and readiness benchmark linked to PLA modernisation goals, not a fixed decision date for invasion,” he said.

“Beijing would still weigh costs, risks, US and allied responses, Taiwan’s resilience, and Xi Jinping’s confidence in success before taking any kinetic step.”

He said an outright invasion of Taiwan was China’s least preferred choice because of the complex military operation it would require.

“Far more plausible is intensified coercion below the threshold of war: larger military drills, maritime quarantine-style pressure, cyber-attacks, sabotage, economic punishment and political interference designed to weaken Taiwan’s confidence and shrink its room to manoeuvre,” he said.

“China would prefer to take Taiwan through coercive means if it can, because this is cheaper and carries fewer risks than conflict.

“The real test over the next five years is whether Taiwan and its partners can sustain deterrence, social cohesion and economic confidence under constant grey-zone stress.”

Australia, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand have a partnership with NATO under the auspices of the Indo-Pacific 4 or IP4.

The relationship is not formal and does not bind the four countries to NATO’s Article 5, but is designed to help European nations counter the threat posed by China.

The Japanese Government has approved the sale of defence exports, something Mr Taniguchi said was a priority for the relationship between Australia and Japan.

Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is due to visit Australia in May.

A spokesman for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said any attempts to prevent reunification with Taiwan was doomed.

“The one-China principle is where the arc of history bends and public opinion trends, and to uphold it is the right thing to do. No one can ever stop the eventual reunification of China. The separatist attempts aimed at ‘Taiwan independence’ are just futile and doomed to fail.”

Angus Campbell said Australia was delighted that Japan was building Australia’s next fleet of frigates.

He added that more work needed to be done to underline that competitors and potential adversaries had choices but expressed hope that the security threats would be a counter to polarisation.

“Talking to your public, speaking of the world as it is and acknowledging the world as we may wish it to be, I think these are really important conversations,” he said.

“And this kind of conversation I think is really important to be had across the body politic. Not in terms of seeking to frighten or create anxiety, but just a realistic acknowledgement of the work that needs to be done.

“That conversation is definitely happening here in Europe. It’s happening in Australia. It’s happening across the world because, people are looking at a world that is less certain, more dangerous potentially.

And that I hope brings people together, communities together in body politics and nations together, in finding ways to work constructively to security prosperity for all.”