Coalition loses 40-year streak as Labor becomes most trusted on economy

The Coalition has lost its 40-year streak of being preferred over Labor when it comes to managing the economy.

The Australian Election Study, led by Australian National University and Griffith University, shows voters now trust Labor’s approach to economic issues, with the coalition losing its long-held advantage.

The Liberals suffered their lowest rating in the 2025 study, dropping to an average score of 4.2 on a zero to 10 scale of how much people like the party.

Voters signalled a clear preference for Anthony Albanese as Prime Minister, with former opposition leader Peter Dutton’s lack of popularity at May’s Federal Election breaking several records in the study.

“Dutton was the least popular major party leader the study has ever polled,” co-author Ian McAllister said.

“According to voters, the leadership qualities he most lacked were ‘inspiration’, closely followed by ‘compassion’.”

The Australian Election Study has been held after every federal poll since 1987.

The full report on the 2025 election will be released at Parliament House on Wednesday.

The Federal Election saw the Coalition sink to its worst election result, winning just 43 seats in the House of Representatives.

The study’s results show voter volatility continues to rise, with 25 per cent of participants reporting they don’t feel close to any political party.

Co-author Sarah Cameron said the wide gender gap that emerged over the past decade had remained.

“The Coalition attracted the lowest share of votes from women on record, with nine per cent fewer women than men voting for the coalition,” Dr Cameron said.

“Conversely, Labor attracts more votes from women than men.

“The gender gap in voting for Labor, at five per cent, is about half the size of the Coalition’s.”

There has also been a dramatic drop in confidence in Australia’s relationship with the United States, with 55 per cent of voters saying they trust in the US to come to Australia’s defence, down from 73 per cent in 2022.

The dire results come as the Coalition’s primary vote also failed to lift beyond record low levels in the latest Newspoll data, which revealed most voters support Andrew Hastie as preferred opposition leader.

Labor continues to lead the two-party preferred vote by 58-42 per cent.

Opposition treasury spokesman Ted O’Brien will use a keynote address on Wednesday to outline some of the principles of the coalition’s economic policy.

Mr O’Brien will describe a new focus on intergenerational equity and criticise backsliding levels of productivity.

“Today, we are living off the productivity gains of the generations before us,” he will say.

“The generation before you builds your foundation; then you build on it for the next generation. That is the intergenerational compact.

“But that intergenerational compact is breaking.”

He will also use the speech to reiterate the Coalition’s promises to cut income taxes and restore a Howard-era measure limiting government spending.