Federal election 2025: WA to be battleground State to keep title with major parties pining hopes on west

Western Australia will again prove to be a battleground State on election night, with both Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton set to touchdown in Perth in the campaign’s dying days to launch a final bid for votes.

As both Labor and Liberal insiders warn key seats in Perth are going down to the wire, expectations are high Australia will once again look west after 6pm on polling day for the final result — and see if Labor can hang on to majority government.

The Prime Minister flew into Perth on Wednesday night, and the Opposition Leader is tipped to arrive on Friday as part of an election-eve blitz of battleground seats.

Mr Dutton’s movements mirror that of former prime minister Scott Morrison, who also started his penultimate day on the trail in 2022 in WA.

After weeks of campaigning, which were delayed ahead of the March State election, The West Australian can reveal the Liberal Party has all-but given up on the seat of Swan, where Labor has a 9.4 per cent margin.

But the Opposition now has Pearce, in Perth’s northern suburbs, in its sights, with sources describing the seat as “competitive” with “very interesting” polling suggesting one-term Labor MP Tracey Roberts is vulnerable.

Liberal candidate Jan Norberger, a former State MP, has been “door-knocking like a demon”, said one party source. “We’ve put in a lot of hard work there, and it will be tight” another said.

Pearce takes in Butler, where there was a 30 per cent swing against Labor during the State election, and Mindarie, where the swing was 26 per cent.

Labor was hit by strong swings against it in outer fringe suburbs at the State election, with Liberals pinning their hopes on a similar trend on Saturday.

The retirement of veteran Liberal MP Nola Marino has left the South West seat of Forrest vulnerable to the well-funded teal challenge from Sue Chapman, but insiders remained confident Ben Small will prevail after more party resources were thrown at the region.

Liberals also said they were confident voter sentiment was “trending our way” in Bullwinkel, where a three-way race has made the contest unpredictable.

Labor candidate Trish Cook and Liberal candidate Matt Moran are leading the contest, with polling putting former WA Nationals leader Mia Davies “a long way back” in third place.

“We feel better about Bullwinkel now than ever before,” a Labor source told The West. “Mia Davies’ vote does not appear to be anywhere near what was predicted. We are putting a lot of effort in Bullwinkel.”

The Liberals’ are confident Ms Davies’ preferences will get Mr Moran across the line in the new seat.

Ms Davies insisted the only poll that mattered was election day.

“If I’m so far behind why has Labor stitched up a deal with the Liberals to preference them ahead of me, and running attack adverts on trucks, billboards and social media instead of spruiking their own policy,” she said.

“I’ll keep working hard until 6pm on Saturday to give people a sensible alternative as someone with experience and a track record of fighting hard for their electorate.”

But the State election results also showed the Liberals failing to recover significant support across the western and inner suburbs, raising concerns about the party’s chances in two key prospect seats.

Internal polling is suggesting a much tighter race in must-win WA seats including Curtin and Tangney, which the Liberals predict will “go down to the wire”.

“I wouldn’t be shocked if some seats don’t have a result on the night,” a source said.

Another said both seats were very close, but there had been a promising trend on prepoll booths.

Polling has Liberal candidate Tom White and Teal MP Kate Chaney locked in a tight battle for Curtin, with an internal Liberal figure saying they had the race at 51-49, but wouldn’t say who was in front.

“It could go either way,” they said, predicting preference flow could decide the western suburbs seat that was a Liberal stronghold before 2022.

The two leaders have been central to their opponents campaigns in WA, with Mr Dutton regularly dismissing Mr Albanese as not akin to popular State Labor leaders Mark McGowan and Roger Cook.

But Labor insiders said Mr Albanese was considered a safe pair of hands and voters had a negative perception of Mr Dutton.

“There has been a consistent hardening of the opinion against Peter Dutton,” the source said.

Mr Cook has also been prominent on the local campaign trail, featuring at six joint press conferences with a federal counterpart since early voting opened, and even appearing on how to votes with Mr Albanese.

Speaking along Labor frontbencher Patrick Gorman on Wednesday, Mr Cook underscored the State’s partnership with the Federal Government on housing.

“This is partnership in action. This is an example of how we are working so well with the Albanese Labor Government to deliver for Western Australians,” he said.