LATIKA M BOURKE: Palestinian recognition shows loss of US influence, Rubio labels call ‘largely meaningless’

The move by Australia and its centre-left-governed allies to recognise Palestine is meaningless, according to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

“It’s largely meaningless, right?” Mr Rubio told the New York radio station 77 WABC this week.

“It’s symbolic, and they’re doing it primarily for one reason, and that is their internal politics, their domestic politics.

“In the UK, in France, in many parts of Europe and Ireland, for a long time their domestic politics has turned anti-Israel or whatever it may be, and they’re getting a lot of domestic pressure to do something, but it’s largely meaningless.

“The truth of the matter is that the future of that region is not going to be decided by some UN resolution.

“It’s not going to be decided by some press release by a Prime Minister or a President from some country.”

Certainly, it will do little to change the ancient and complex hatreds and politics of the Middle East.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is the first to downplay his own influence and that of the nation when he continually casts Australia as “not big players” in the region.

He, like a few of the leaders rushing to recognise Palestine, have few answers for what Palestinian state they are recognising or how it could be achieved.

Mr Albanese says Hamas cannot be part of any Palestinian state and points to an Arab League statement endorsing this position.

Hamas, a listed terrorist organisation, has sought to badge it as a win for its violent and murderous behaviour, but in reality they are more isolated and Iran’s proxies weakened since October 7 than before.

The Prime Minister is right to deplore the equivalence of his office and a listed terrorist organisation.

Just as Mr Rubio is right to note that domestic politics are at play. He could have gone further and illustrated the increasing and largely unexamined role that diaspora politics is playing in national politics, not just when it comes to Muslim voters but also Chinese and potentially Indian ones.

But the US Secretary is wrong to assume that this is the only motive or that it is meaningless.

“I spoke to Secretary Rubio ahead of the announcement and as a matter of diplomatic courtesy, advised him of our intention to announce,” Penny Wong confirmed at a joint press conference when the Foreign Minister and her factional ally, the Prime Minister, announced their historic move.

What Mr Rubio missed or does not want to acknowledge is that this move happened despite the United States.

If Mr Rubio expressed any discontent or even opposition during that call with Senator Wong, it didn’t matter and more importantly, it didn’t work.

And so the move from the allied club represents a significant cleavage of the United States from its allies on a key foreign policy question.

It is perhaps the first material example of the cost of the Trump Administration’s bullying and commanding approach towards its allies.

In this way, the move to recognise Palestine is less about a message to Hamas, but one directed towards the governments of Israel and the United States.

Their audience is two-fold: US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

New Zealand’s mild-mannered Prime Minister Christopher Luxon was most stark when he said that Mr Netanyahu had “lost the plot” with his campaign in Gaza, which has beamed images of starving Palestinians and their children into the world and the White House.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese also rejected Israel’s criticism, saying Mr Netanyahu was “in denial”.

“You can’t just continue to do what he is saying, which is we’ll continue to just have this military operation without any political strategy for a solution going forward,” he said.

“We’re seeing how it is playing out, which is Gaza reduced to rubble, tens of thousands of innocent lives being lost, innocent kids being killed while trying to get basic essentials of food and water.

“We just can’t keep going the same way.”

Not that Mr Trump himself appears to care. He told Israel to “finish the job.”

And with this greenlight, Mr Netanyahu has announced plans for the Israeli occupation of Gaza City, downgraded from his original threat of occupying the Strip.

France, the UK, Canada, Australia and likely New Zealand did not make the decision lightly.

And it may not be the last time they act in tandem and in defiance of the United States.

Mr Trump has rocked Indian politics with his 50 per cent tariffs, citing India’s purchase of Russian oil. It’s a noble gesture, undone by it’s inconsistency, given there is no punishment for Russia’s biggest partner in the war in Ukraine — China.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is due to host the Quad leaders meeting this year. By mid-August, no date has been set. Mr Rubio has been attempting to sharpen the Quad’s motive for countering Chinese dominance in the Indo-Pacific.

It could easily fall victim to Mr Trump’s vicissitudes and become a secondary example of the price of MAGA’s predatory diplomacy.

Mr Rubio and the Israeli Government may bemoan the departure of Australia and allies from the flock.

But the real question they should be asking is why so many middle powers found it so easy to resist US influence and power.