LATIKA M BOURKE: Richard Marles warns Ukraine war may run for years despite Donald Trump's claims

Defence Minister Richard Marles has poured cold water on the prospect of US President Donald Trump resolving the war in Ukraine, saying allies will need to continue for years, and Europe and Australia will need to equip Kyiv with more predictability.

Mr Trump said that he would have the war in Ukraine finished in “one day, 24 hours” if re-elected President. But after one year in the White House, he has not forced Russian President Vladimir Putin to withdraw from his illegal invasion and regularly blamed Ukraine for the ongoing conflict.

Officials from Russia and Ukraine are meeting for their third round of peace talks with US officials in Geneva, Switzerland, but hopes of a breakthrough are low.

Acknowledging that The Nightly’s criticism of the piecemeal way in which Labor has delivered often low-quality and low-value aid to Ukraine as “fair,” Mr Marles said Europe and Ukraine’s non-NATO allies needed to prepare for the prospect of Ukraine being in a long-term war against Russia.

“I think it’s fair in terms of the way in which we have been providing contributions up until now,” he said when questioned about how the ad-hoc approach Labor has taken towards helping arm Ukraine to fight against Russia’s illegal invasion.

”We have consistently been providing contributions, but you wouldn’t say it’s been on a predictable basis — we’ve been doing it as we can.”

The Deputy Prime Minister was speaking exclusively to the Latika Takes podcast on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, which he attended for the first time, citing the importance for Australia of how the war in Ukraine, now approaching its fourth year, ends.

He also attended for the first time in person the meeting of the Ukraine Defence Contact Group at NATO headquarters in Brussels.

He said the war was unlikely to end for years and that the way in which the West supported Kyiv’s fight also had to recalibrate.

“We need to have in our mind, preparing to stay the course, which is not measured in days or weeks or months, but years,” he said.

“Now we hope that there’s a resolution to this far sooner than that, but at the same time, we actually have to be preparing for the fact that we need to be standing with Ukraine over a period that is measured in years.

“And that’s where our heads are at. There is a legitimate point to make now that we need to be thinking about how we make, the contributions that we make regular and predictable. And exactly how we do that is something that we are working through.”

Mr Marles said it would require allies to “dig deep” but that Ukraine was fighting for a world where rules mattered, which was especially important for smaller countries like Australia.

Mr Marles said his views had been informed after meeting NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte on the sidelines of the conference.

Late last year, Australia and New Zealand became the first non-NATO countries to contribute to NATO’s Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List (PRUL) scheme.

PURL is the program created after the Trump Administration ended Joe Biden’s policy of directly sending weapons to Ukraine.

The US Supreme Allied Commander who heads NATO’s strategic planning has helped draw up the list of specific weapons that Kyiv needs. These include the critically-needed missile interceptors that only the US produces.

President Zelenskyy, in his nightly video address, instructed his diplomats working around the world to prioritise securing funding for missile supplies for air defences, after Russia fired 400 drones and 29 missiles across Ukraine. Kyiv has endured its coldest winter of the war without electricity because of Russia’s deliberate targeting of its energy sources.

While President Trump no longer sends US-funded weapons to Ukraine, under PURL, allies can instead buy American weapons for Ukraine.

Mr Marles said Australia would likely continue contributing to PURL but that other aid could also be delivered. This could include a default bias towards sending end-of-life arms and equipment being used by the Australian military directly to Ukraine.

Speaking alongside Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Munich, Mr Rutte urged countries not to give aid to Ukraine bilaterally anymore.

“Don’t give bilateral stuff outside that list because it is nice, it gives you nice pictures and photographs in the newspapers,” Mr Rutte said.

“We need know exactly what they need.”

Vasyl Myroshnychenko, Ukraine’s Ambassador to Australia, welcomed the development.

“Winning a war requires a regular and reliable approach — strategically and operationally,” he told The Nightly.

“I welcome the Deputy Prime Minister’s remarks that Australia will further align its approach to Ukraine aid to this principle.

“Russia relies on and exploits the inconsistency of the West when it comes to Ukraine. A clear and consistent approach to prosecuting the war and its support takes away Putin’s strategic advantage.”

Kateryna Argyrou, Chair, Australian Federation of Ukrainian Organisations, said the West’s ad hoc contributions had ultimately been to Russia’s benefit.

“The AFUO welcomes any effort to make Australia’s support for Ukraine more regular and predictable,” Ms Argyrou said.

“Ukraine can only prevail if it has the tools to do so — incremental, ad hoc contributions will not be enough for Ukraine to truly defend itself and stop the Russian war machine.

“Consistent and comprehensive military, energy and humanitarian support is essential.

“Military assistance to Ukraine, including through mechanisms such as PURL, is essential, but it must be matched by meaningful economic pressure.”

Bryce Wakefield, the CEO of the Australian Institute for International Affairs who also attended the Munich Security Conference, said Australia needed to do a better job of living up to its word.

“Australia has been rhetorically consistent in opposing Russia’s war, but until now has sometimes struggled with criticism from Ukraine that it is not doing enough,” Dr Wakefield said.

“To be fair, it is hard for a country so far away to commit to expensive initiatives.

“However, providing at least consistent financial support through the PURL sends a clear message to Europeans with more skin in the game that they should be consistent too.”

The Opposition’s shadow minister for defence, James Paterson, said “Australia’s interests are clear: we want Ukraine to prevail, and we should do whatever we reasonably can to assist.”

“But we won’t be a good ally for Ukraine nor adequately meet our own defence needs unless we urgently and significantly increase defence spending.

“Labor has failed to heed its own expert advice for higher defence spending and we are exposing our Ukrainian friends and ourselves to greater danger as a result.”