NICOLA SMITH: China, US trade blows as war of words ignites as tariffs kick in

In the latest twist in the new Trumpian era of geopolitical bombshells, Australia woke up on Thursday to Beijing and Washington squaring off about their readiness for war.

Beyond the alarming headlines, neither side is spoiling for a fight, but it would be a mistake in an increasingly uncertain world for any country — Australia included — to ignore the crescendo of warnings there is no room for complacency on deterrence and defence.

The belligerent rhetoric began with China taking issue at US President Donald Trump slapping more tariffs on Chinese goods as the world’s two largest economies creep closer to a trade conflict.

“If war is what the US wants, be it a tariff war, a trade war or any other type of war, we’re ready to fight till the end,” China’s embassy to the US said on X on Wednesday.

The line was taken from a statement by foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian on Tuesday on tariffs, warning the US that anyone using “coercion or threats” against China was “picking the wrong guy and miscalculating”.

The unnerving sparring match continued with a counterthreat from US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth that the US is “prepared” to go to war with China.

“Those who long for peace must prepare for war,” Mr Hegseth told Fox News hours after the embassy’s strident remarks, stressing it was important to “be strong”.

“That’s why we’re rebuilding our military. That’s why we’re re-establishing deterrence in the warrior ethos. We live in a dangerous world with powerful, ascendant countries with very different ideology,” he said.

“My job, as the secretary of defence, is to make sure we’re ready. We need the defence spending, the capabilities, the weapons and the posture in the Indo-Pacific, which is something we’re very much focusing on.”

While both sides are sizing each other up, neither wants to throw the first punch.

Mr Lin’s full statement urged the US to “return to the right track of dialogue and cooperation” while Mr Hegseth stressed President Trump’s “great relationship” with China’s leader Xi Jinping.

“Where we can partner, where we can cooperate to recognise that we don’t want war with China, we don’t seek that war, we will,” Hegseth said.

China’s language, some of its most forceful words since Mr Trump rose to power for a second time, coincides with its leaders gathering in Beijing for the annual National People’s Congress.

It’s a time when the ruling Communist Party, now facing its own cost-of-living woes, housing crisis and high youth unemployment, traditionally tries to project strength to a domestic audience.

On Wednesday, Premier Li Qiang announced that China would, for the third year in a row, boost its defence spending by 7.2 per cent this year, while warning that “changes unseen in a century were unfolding across the world at a faster pace.”

However, a Congress spokesperson later told reporters that China’s defence expenditure as a percentage of GDP had been below 1.5 percent for many years, lower than the world average.

Beijing’s war readiness warnings are also not unprecedented.

President Xi has ordered his military to be ready to conduct a takeover of democratic Taiwan by 2027, although US defence officials have stressed this not an actual invasion deadline.

Last October, he again called for troops to strengthen their preparedness for battle they held military drills around Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its own even though the Communist party has never ruled there.

Defence analysts say rapidly changing geopolitical realities, heightened by Washington’s shift in alignment from Ukraine, should now force countries like Australia onto a more urgent footing when it comes to investing in national security.

“The whole point of investing in defence is to deter war, to avoid war, but you can’t just rely on deterrence being sustained forever,” said Justin Bassi, executive director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI).

“When you’re up against countries like Russia, like Iran, like North Korea, like China, unfortunately, you have to invest in preparedness and national resilience,” he added.

Australia should have been “worried well before” China said it was “prepared to fight to the end,” said Mr Bassi.

“We have to take what China says seriously. They often follow through with what they say,” he cautioned.

Mr Trump barely mentioned China or the Indo-Pacific in his record-breaking congressional address of more than an hour and 40 minutes on Wednesday.

Dr Euan Graham, a senior analyst at ASPI, said it showed China was not foremost in his mind for now but cautioned “that doesn’t mean, of course, that it’ll stay that way”.

“I think it’s the shoe that hasn’t dropped, but eventually it will,” he said.

For the new administration, “China is the pacing threat,” and this may explain why the White House was in such a hurry to push Europe to step up efforts to end the war in Ukraine, he said.

The circumnavigation of Australia by three self-sustaining Chinese warships — including a Renhai-class cruiser capable of carrying hypersonic missiles — has also presented the country with a new reality in its own neighbourhood.

The naval flotilla and its live-fire drills had put Canberra on notice that “China will continue to put Australia within its area of direct military interest,” said Dr Graham.

“It’s not a friendly message,” he said. “It’s like someone turning up in your garden letting off fireworks.”

It also reinforces the narrative emerging from Washington that Canberra must boost its defence spending from two to three per cent of GDP.

The demand came from Elbridge Colby, Mr Trump’s nominee for head of policy at the Pentagon on Wednesday, prompting Defence Minister Richard Marles to say it was “completely reasonable” for the US to ask allies to do more and Australia was “ready to engage in that conversation”.

But Dr Graham cautioned that “just pouring money at a problem is not the way we need to approach this,” and Australia had to take a look at its strategic needs, including basic issues like recruitment and retention.

Recent events should put defence spending “front and centre of the forthcoming election debate and hopefully win a commitment” to do more, he said.