Canadian election weighs up scenario where Donald Trump may tip the election away from the conservatives

Three months ago, the 45-year-old leader of Canada’s Conservative Party, Pierre Poilievre, looked like he was cruising into power over a demoralised and discredited left-wing government.

A snap election was called on Sunday. Surveys now suggest Mr Poilievre could lose thanks to a politician he admires and whose values he shares: Presidential Donald Trump.

To be held on April 28 — likely a week or two before Australia’s - the Canadian poll could be an unwelcome portent for Peter Dutton, another conservative populist with a Trump-like hostility to immigration, the public service and progressive politics. Mr Dutton last week promised to make a visit to Washington a top foreign priority if he becomes Prime Minister.

The Trump presidency has transformed Canadian politics. Within three weeks of taking power Mr Trump suggested America’s neighbour become the 51st US state. “They’re not viable as a country,” he said.

Initially considered a joke or a negotiating tactic, a sense that Mr Trump might be serious, and the heavy tariffs he imposed on Canadian goods, turned Canadian relations with the US from an afterthought into the leading campaign issue.

Mike Myers is Canadian?

Last week Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney promised an increase in military spending by $460 million in defence of Canada’s Artic territories, and spoke to Prime Minister Anthony Albanese about buying Australia’s over-the-horizon radar technology.

Canada may cancel or modify a $20 billion contract for 88 F-35 jets from American contractor Lockheed Martin. Mr Dutton has promised to order an extra 28 of the cutting-edge fighters.

While the election was called on Sunday, it looks like preparations were underway since Mr Carney took over from the unpopular Justin Trudeau on March 14.

In an ad shown on weekend, Mr Carney quizzed comedian Mike Myers, who lives in New York, about the movie star’s knowledge of his home country.

“What are the two seasons in Toronto?” the Prime Minister asked.

“Winter and construction,” Myers replied.

“Wow, you really are a Canadian,” Mr Carney replied.

The in-joke referred to extensive building construction that many residents of Canada’s biggest city complain of when temperatures rise above freezing.

“Will there always be a Canada?” Myers asks.

The Prime Minister then assures him their country would survive.

Winning over the youth

Before Mr Trump moved into the White House, Mr Poilievre’s Conservative Party led opinion polls by around 25 percentage points.

His plan to loosen building regulations and trigger a home-building boom was popular with young Canadians who, like many Australians, felt frozen out of the property market by high prices.

An adoptee and student activist, Mr Poilievre was celebrated by conservatives around the world, including in Australia’s Liberal Party, for his strong rejection of many signature progressive beliefs, such as allowing transgender athletes to compete against women and share bathrooms.

They saw Mr Trump’s election last November as the part of a wave of right-wing election victories that could include Germany, Canada and possibly Australia.

Conservatives received the most votes in Germany last month, but the Canadian election is too close to call. A recent aggregation of opinion polls by the state broadcaster found the Conservative and Liberal parties (Canada’s Liberals are similar to the Australian Labor Party) in a statistical dead heat. Betting markets are broadly even too.

‘Respectful and firm’

Even thought he shares many of Mr Trump’s values, Mr Poilievre has been forced to distance himself from the US President.

Asked on the weekend if he respected Mr Trump, Mr Poilievre said the US bought 70 per cent of Canada’s goods. “You can be respectful and firm, and I believe we have to be both,” he said.

Launching his campaign on Sunday, Mr Carney, a former central banker, framed the election as an opportunity to strengthen the nation against a challenge from the south.

“We’re facing the most significant crises of our lifetimes because of President Trump’s unjustified trade actions and his threats to our sovereignty,” he said on Sunday. “He wants to break us so America can own us.”