North Korea fires several cruise missiles off coast as experts tie new launches to US election year

North Korea has fired several cruise missiles into waters off its western coast, Seoul says, adding to a provocative run of weapons demonstrations in the face of deepening nuclear tensions with the United States, South Korea and Japan.

South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said the US and South Korean militaries were analysing Wednesday’s launches, with some think-tanks linking the rogue state’s more warlike stance so early in 2024 with the upcoming US presidential elections in November.

South Korea did not immediately confirm the exact number of missiles fired or their specific flight details.

The launches marked North Korea’s second known launch event of the year, following a January 14 flight test-firing of the country’s first solid-fuel intermediate range ballistic missile, which reflected its efforts to advance its line-up of weapons targeting US military bases in Japan and Guam.

Tensions on the Korean Peninsula have increased in recent months as North Korean leader Kim Jong-un continues to accelerate his weapons development and issue provocative threats of nuclear conflict with the United States and its Asian allies.

Some analysts have linked the launches to the timing of the US election. Experts say the North would aim to increase its bargaining power as it plans for eventual negotiations with whoever wins the November presidential vote.

“North Korea exhibits a tendency to ramp up provocations during US election years,” the Center for Strategic and International Studies wrote earlier this month.

“While diplomacy could stave off some of the violence, Kim Jong-un has rejected all calls from the Biden administration to meet.

“Instead, the regime has more than doubled the number of tests since 2021, compared to under the previous US administration. A Trump victory in November could conceivably reduce North Korean provocations and increase South Korean talk about going nuclear at the same time.”

The US, South Korea and Japan in response have been expanding their combined military exercises, which Kim portrays as invasion rehearsals, and sharpening their deterrence strategies built around nuclear-capable US assets.

In the latest tit-for-tat, North Korea said last week that it conducted a test of a purported nuclear-capable underwater attack drone in response to a combined naval exercise by the United States, South Korea and Japan, as it blamed its rivals for tensions in the region.

Since 2021, the North has conducted several flight tests of what it describes as long-range cruise missiles, which it claims are capable of striking targets 1500km away, a distance putting nearly all of Japan and US military installations there within reach.

The North has described those weapons as “strategic”, communicating an intent to arm them with nuclear weapons.

While North Korean cruise missile activities are not directly banned under UN sanctions, experts say those weapons potentially pose a serious threat to South Korea and Japan, as they are designed to fly like small planes and travel along landscape that would make them harder to detect by radar.

There are concerns that North Korea would dial up tensions in a US election year. Experts say the North would aim to increase its bargaining power as it plans for eventual negotiations with whoever wins the November presidential vote.