Is Melbourne Cup favouritism really a good thing? Point of Law is about to find out

Is Melbourne Cup favouritism really a good thing? Point of Law is about to find out.

The star horse — owned by King Charles until just months ago — is a $7 favourite for the race that stops Australia.

But he will need to defy more than just Melbourne Cup history in Tuesday’s race. Australia’s spring racing carnival has delivered a frank reminder that favouritism is no guarantee of success.

The Ciaron Maher-trained favourite (who has been as short as $5) heads into the $10 million, 3200-metre Group 1 spectacle following a string of upsets in major Australian races, including the Caulfield Cup, The Everest, Cox Plate and Golden Eagle.

On the same day that short-priced favourite Ka Ying Rising was famously bested by Tempted (paying $6.50) in the upset of the season at The Everest, Cosmic Crusader ($4.80) was upstaged in the Caulfield Cup by Kingswood, who was paying $23 for victory.

A week later, Cosmic Crusader ($9.50) got the ultimate redemption, defeating Sir Delius ($4.20) in the Cox Plate at Flemington.

Just days ago, red-hot favourite Sheza Alibi ($1.50) finished 11th in the $10 million Golden Eagle, with winner Skyhook paying $12 for victory.

And if Point of Law needs any further warning, the Cup’s own history is even less encouraging. Favourites have won just 34 of the 165 editions of Australia’s most famous race, a strike rate of barely one in five.

Only two horses across three Melbourne Cups this century have bucked the trend, the peerless Makybe Diva in 2004 and 2005, as she completed an historic three-peat, and Fiorente in 2013.

Point of Law, who secured a golden ticket by winning the Geelong Cup, was confirmed as the outright bookmaker’s choice on Sunday after drawing barrier nine.

He will be mounted by jockey Ethan Brown, pictured above during early morning trackwork at Werribee Racecourse on Monday.

The three-year old has royal roots, bred and raced by King Charles III and Queen Camilla before being sold to Maher in August. The Cup will be the British colt’s sixth career start and first over 3,200m.

Maher boasts an unprecedented seven starters including Point of Law, Shockletz, Juja Kibo, Middle Earth, Mr Monaco, Zahrann and Royal Supremacy.

Trustyourinstinct ($8.50), trained by Joseph O’Brien with champion jockey James McDonald on board, and Shockletz ($10) are among the fancies.

“He’s the one that everyone has to beat,” O’Brien said of Point Of Law.

McDonald on Saturday rode pre-race favourite Stormy Marco to victory in the Victoria Derby over 2500m, in what could be a positive omen for the Cup’s short-priced leaders.

McDonald previously steered the 2021 winner Verry Elleegant, while O’Brien is aiming to win his third Melbourne Cup after Rekindling in 2017 and Twilight Payment in 2020.

It comes as popular jockey Harry Coffey remains pencilled in to ride Shockletz despite a suspected fractured collarbone in a terrifying race fall at the weekend.

Coffey was thrown from Pondalowie in the Empire Rose Stakes on Saturday and had surgery the following day. However, he’s expected to take his place in the line-up just three days later.

Back-to-back Cup-winning jockey Mark Zahra, who rode Gold Trip to victory in 2022 and Without a Fight the following year, has recovered from a fall of his own aboard Half Yours in the Caulfield Cup and will ride Middle Earth ($14).

Meanwhile, Jamie Melham will defend her crown aboard outside chance Future History ($51). Melham rode Half Yours to victory in last year’s Cup.

Stinger Glass, Defiantly and Saint George were also among the early favourites but were scratched well before the field was confirmed on Saturday.