Ghosts of Epstein and Brexit haunt Westminster: What the hell is happening in British politics?

Keir Starmer’s leadership is under attack. He is being stalked by at least two men who have openly declared they want to dethrone the UK’s Prime Minister, less than two years after he won Labour a 174-seat majority election win.

Nigel Farage’s populist far-right Reform UK party is riding high in the polls and just gobbled up more Labour heartland areas in recent council elections. It also came second in Wales, where Labour lost power after 100 years.

This has spooked Labour MPs who would prefer to lose to the Conservatives than to Reform.

So what happened?

Sir Keir had a terrible start to government. The biggest and earliest mistake he made was to cut a benefit granted to pensioners for heating during the winter.

This came as a shock to voters, as Labour did not say that this was something they would do in office. Further, it hurt pensioners whose children and grandchildren were affronted, particularly those who supported Labour because they did not like the previous Conservative government’s attacks on public spending.

Sir Keir was also hit by early scandals, such as revelations he accepted free suits from a Labour donor. This hurt his image and his promise of “change” and to restore integrity in British politics.

He has struggled with communication, and that has led to an inability to connect with voters. His former powerful chief of staff Morgan McSweeney, who was his campaign strategist and the architect of his leadership, was also divisive and accused of copying Reform too much, particularly when it came to sounding harsh tones on migrants.

As a result, the prime minister has struggled to manage his enormous backbench and suffered a parliamentary rebellion when he and Chancellor Rachel Reeves attempted to cut back disability benefits.

A more serious scandal occurred over his decision to appoint the Blair-era spin doctor and twice-disgraced former minister Peter Mandelson to be ambassador to the US, despite Mr Mandelson continuing an ongoing friendship with the dead paedophile Jeffrey Epstein.

Sir Keir was forced to sack Mr Mandelson, whom many warned him not to appoint, and subsequent information has shown that he did not interrogate any of the concerns that were flagged about his appointee’s connections to China, Russia and also Epstein.

Rather, evidence showed that Mr McSweeney, a protege of Mr Mandelson’s, pushed for the appointment to be sped through formal vetting.

Has Keir Starmer done anything right?

Yes. He is widely seen as having navigated the global turbulence well. He was praised for forming a good relationship with US President Donald Trump and winning Britain an early trade deal that reprieved the UK from many of the Liberation Day tariffs.

He has also tacked closer to Europe, which, 10 years after Brexit, is an approach that has majority support.

But the war in Iran has damaged his relationship with Mr Trump. Sir Keir originally denied the US access to joint bases to launch strikes on Iran — a position he later reversed — but it has caused the US President to repeatedly and publicly criticise the UK Leader. However, the majority of Britons oppose the war in Iran, so this has also bolstered his stance domestically.

Domestically, he has passed bills strengthening the rights of workers and renters that Labour MPs generally applaud.

Nevertheless, the percentage of Britons who think Sir Keir is doing badly in his job sits between 70 and 76 per cent, compared to 43 per cent just after his election, according to YouGov’s tracker.

So it is on?

Currently, there is no official contest leadership contest open. Anyone wanting to challenge a sitting Labour prime minister has to collect 81 signatures from MPs supporting their bid.

Then the Labour Party National Executive Committee sets out a timetable for a leadership election.

According to The Institute for Government: “Nominations must be submitted in written form to the general secretary of the party.

“In these circumstances, a sitting leader is not required to seek nominations (they are on the ballot paper by default).”

While Mr Streeting quit as Health Secretary last week, citing a lack of confidence in the PM’s leadership, he did not present the required 81 signatures to launch a challenge.

He instead urged the PM to set out a timetable for an orderly leadership contest.

So who is Andy Burnham?

Andy Burnham is often referred to as the king of the north. He is the Labour Mayor of Manchester and is a darling of the Labour movement.

He hails from the soft left of the Labour Party. Mr Streeting and Sir Keir are both Blairites from the party’s right wing.

A lot of the fight underway is about whether the party should tack to the right or left. Opponents of Burnham think moving to the left would be economically and politically dangerous.

But Mr Burnham’s supporters think Labour lacks vision and credibility and leaves voters with the impression that it doesn’t know what or who it stands for under the current right-leaning direction.

Mr Burnham has also declared he is running in the not-yet-declared leadership contest.

But he doesn’t have a seat in the House of Commons. To solve this, a former minister who quit in disgrace has said he is stepping down to make way for Mr Burnham’s return to Parliament. He stood down in 2017 when the Tories were in power to contest the mayoral election.

Will he win the by-election?

Makerfield, in Wigan in Greater Manchester, is no longer a safe seat for Labour, so it is impossible to say right now.

MPs on the ground say it will be a tough fight for Labour, which is haemorrhaging support in traditional heartland areas to Nigel Farage’s Reform.

In 2024, Labour beat Reform by only 5399 votes. The Government’s polling has collapsed since and in the council elections earlier this month, Reform won every single ward that sits within the Makerfield electorate.

The party also faces a fight on the left against the Greens which is polling well. But the Greens are also fighting over whether they should stand as doing so could split the left-wing vote and pave the way for Reform to win, because Britain has a first-past-the-post voting system.

Mr Burnham’s contest will be a litmus test for whether or not he can really be the person who can beat both Reform and the Greens in one.

When is the by-election?

June 18. In Australia, expect the results to come in the late afternoon of June 19.

If Burnham doesn’t win does that mean Keir is safe?

Kind of. It is politically untenable for the prime minister to have ministers and MPs continually publicly calling for him to go.

He may agree to a leadership contest before anyone presents 81 signatures.

Or he might dig in, but then the soft-left could coalesce around Ed Miliband, the former leader and now cabinet minister who could then launch a challenge.

So regardless Keir is cactus?

You never say no in politics. But it is very difficult to see how Sir Keir rebounds. Even if he clung on, few backbenchers think he could improve his performance to make Labour contestable at the time of the next election, due in 2029.

What if Burnham wins?

In this scenario, if the prime minister had not opened up a contest already, Mr Burnham would easily gather the 81 signatures required and challenge the prime minister.

How long would it take?

You can already see that the process of changing sitting prime ministers in UK Labour is nothing like in Australian Labor, the Liberals or even the Tories.

Labour does not have a no-confidence vote or procedure. UK Labour also does not have a culture of knifing sitting prime ministers which is why this process is already so drawn out and public.

Once a contest is opened, that would take another two to three months while the candidates contest for votes, according to sources on the NEC. Sir Keir would remain prime minister for this time and may even contest again.

(Remember that in 2007, after Tony Blair announced his intention to step down, Gordon Brown launched a leadership contest on 11 May 11. Mr Brown went uncontested, but he did not replace Blair as leader until June 24 and as prime minister on June 27.)

That would put the party in the position of having elected its new leader by the time of its annual conference, scheduled to take place in Liverpool between September 27 and 30.