High immigration linked to the worst crime year in Victoria’s history

Stephen Johnson
The Nightly
Tributes at the scene of a fatal stabbing in Cobblebank, Melbourne, Wednesday, September 10, 2025.
Tributes at the scene of a fatal stabbing in Cobblebank, Melbourne, Wednesday, September 10, 2025. Credit: JOEL CARRETT/AAPIMAGE

Victoria’s crime wave has been linked to high immigration by a leading sociologist, who blamed rapid population growth for stretching government services and undermining support for multiculturalism.

Criminal offences in the state rose 15.7 per cent last financial year to an all-time high of 638,640, the Crime Statistics Agency revealed today. The number of people charged with retail crimes surged 42 per cent, proof of a shoplifting surge reported by department stores, hardware outlets and clothing boutiques.

Police Minister Anthony Carbines described the record-high crime levels as “unacceptable” and said repeat offenders had rorted bail laws.

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“There are too many victims at this time,” he said. “There is a crime level that is unacceptable to Victoria Police, to the government and to me as Minister for Police.”

Bob Birrell, the president of The Australian Population Research Institute, said rapid, immigration-fuelled population growth had overwhelmed government resources, leading to higher youth crime.

“One indication of the high rates of overseas migration, in the big cities, is that it’s undermining the capacity of governments to deal with the issues of supply of services, maintain good educational outcomes. That may well contribute to the juvenile delinquency,” he told The Nightly.

In an example of a crime spree that has led some shops to give staff body-worn cameras, a 14-year-old girl and a boy, 16, were this week charged with a string of burglary, car theft and banned weapon offences.

Less than a week ago, 27 people were arrested for a string of anti-social offences, including a 24-year-old man charged with shop stealing and breaching bail.

Immigration concerns

Victoria last year settled 93,176 new migrants from overseas, on a net basis, second only to NSW, and leading to a big population influx into Melbourne.

Dr Birrell, who specialises in sociology, said crime was likely to undermine support for immigration. “They are likely to see high migration as a contributing factor. Undoubtedly, it’s contributing to low support for high migration and criticism of multiculturalism,” he said. “It’s a sleepy issue that can be aroused.”

Kathryn Benier, a criminology lecturer at Monash University, said migrants were more likely to bring down the crime rate because they were worried about losing their visas if they broke the law.

“In many cases immigration actually decreases the crime rate of the area,” she told The Nightly. “Immigrants, who are choosing to move here, there is an understanding that they have to be doing the right thing and abiding by the rules.”

Crack down

Victoria’s Labor Government last month imposed longer sentences on people who boast about their crimes on social media. Bail laws were toughened for repeat offenders in a bid to tackle crimes like aggravated burglary and carjacking. Remand is no longer a last resort for children.

“If you are arrested and charged again, it’s almost impossible for you to get bail,” Mr Carbines said. “The Government will continue to toughen bail laws to make sure that there are consequences. There is a significant rorting. We’re basically talking repeat offenders who are driving our crime rate.”

Former Liberal premier Jeff Kennett says statistics demonstrated that criminals felt they could get away with it.
Former Liberal premier Jeff Kennett says statistics demonstrated that criminals felt they could get away with it. Credit: Michael Willson/AFL Photos

Former Liberal premier Jeff Kennett said the crime statistics demonstrated that criminals felt they could get away with it. “Not good. A culture of acceptance that only builds confidence among those who want to commit criminal acts,” he told The Nightly. “No significant action by the Government. Nor support of the police.”

In the recorded offences category, property and deception offences were up by 21.2 per cent to 378,050. Theft offences drove the increase, with 246,654 recorded. Victoria had 6814 criminal incidents for every 100,000 people.

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