ASX trading frenzy: US-Iran war, interest rate worries spark mania

The whipsaw Middle East conflict and worries about interest rate hikes sparked a share trading mania across Australia over March.

The Australian Securities Exchange is emerging as a huge winner from the geopolitical chaos, after posting its second-highest month ever of equities trading volumes in March, with futures volumes achieving a record month.

Shares in the stock exchange operator navigating a regulatory storm over a series of operating blunders have now surged 8 per cent this week, from $52.77 to $57.01 on Thursday thanks to the record-breaking trade volumes.

The Iran war’s escalation into a global cost-of-living and fuel price shock helped push the ASX’s total equity trade volumes 46 per cent higher to 66.9 million over March, versus 45.9 million in March 2025.

The number of average daily trades jumped 39 per cent to 3.04 million as institutions and mum-and dad investors scrambled to adjust their positions, although the average trade size fell 8 per cent to $3532 to suggest younger investors piled into the market in high numbers.

“This has been an extraordinary period of activity across our markets,” said Ben Jackson the ASX’s General Manager for Markets Operations.

“We’re seeing global geopolitical risk, energy price volatility and interest rate exchange uncertainty translate directly into higher trading and hedging activity domestically,”

On March 20, the day Israel and the US struck Iran’s South Pars gas field, the ASX set an all-time record of $27.1 billion in equities traded.

The only month to see higher volume in history was March 2020, during the peak of the coronavirus panic as shares crashed in response to lockdown policies and toilet rolls sold out across the nation’s supermarkets.

Futures contracts used by traders to hedge interest rate risk also posted record volumes in March as the Reserve Bank lifted interest rates 25 basis points and signalled more potential hikes to contain price inflation linked to the Middle East.

Citi upgrades rating on ASX

On Tuesday, analysts at investment bank Citi lifted their price target on ASX shares from $55.50 to $56.80.

“To us, ASX’s core business is performing well with stronger-than-expected top-line growth while the valuation is relatively undemanding,” Citi said.

The downside risk is that the exchange operator is yet to appoint a permanent new chief executive as costs jump to meet ASIC’s demands of improved operating performance, Citi said.

In response to its series of operating blunders the exchange has lowered its dividend payout ratio and agreed to hold $150 million capital in reserve as an emergency fund.

Global exchanges smash records, Macquarie in focus

Data showed the average daily move on the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Index jumped to 0.9 per cent in March, versus 0.7 per cent in March 2025.

On Thursday, the seesaw volatility across equity, foreign exchange, fixed income, commodity and futures markets showed no signs of abating.

The trading day saw the S&P/ASX Technology sector plunge 5.3 per cent at lunchtime, after jumping 7.3 per cent on Wednesday.

The asset trading mania in response to the Middle East blow-up has also shattered global trade volume records.

New York’s Intercontinental Exchange, known as ICE, smashed monthly volume records in March thanks to its status as a leading venue for commodities, oil, interest rate, and energy futures trading.

ICE said its March monthly contract volumes rocketed to 428.9 million, up 70 per cent versus the prior record in January 2026.

Australian investment bank Macquarie is one of ICE’s largest customers, although it declined to comment on an earlier request for information over claims its Commodities and Global Markets division booked wild swings in its mark-to-market positions in March.

US securities exchange, Cboe, as the number two exchange operator in Australia, also posted record trading volumes across foreign exchange and European equities.

Elsewhere, the local exchange-traded fund (ETF) industry also saw a surge in trading in funds linked to themes popular with retail investors.

“On a year-on-year basis, trading volumes across Global X’s ETF suite have risen by an average of 136 per cent in March 26 versus March 25, led by strong activity in commodity exposures such as the Global X Physical Silver ETF and the Global X Copper Miners ETF,” said its Investment Strategist Justin Lin.