ANDREW GREENE: ASIO’s 9/11 terror warning puts spotlight on Australia’s readiness as extremist threat evolves

Over the past week Australians have been reminded of the horrific 9/11 terrorist attacks against the United States — events 25 years ago that changed the world forever and prompted this country’s longest ever military campaign to Afghanistan.

Ahead of the formal commemorations in Washington and New York, leaders here paid tribute to those who lost their lives in the 2001 al-Qaida strikes, while Australia’s domestic intelligence chief made a startling revelation about current threat levels.

In his message released on the morning of September 11, ASIO boss Mike Burgess confirmed that since December’s Bondi Beach attack his agency had helped to disrupt 16 cases “where a terrorist threat was considered serious but not necessarily imminent”.

“The alleged cases include a planned antisemitic attack, threats to kill Muslims and an advocate of racist violence allegedly found in possession of weapons and ammunition,” the ASIO Director General wrote.

Even some close national security observers and experts in Australia were surprised on Friday to read the contents of the stark 9/11 anniversary statement and the tantalising new details it contained.

What did the 16 new cases in just the past nine months refer to? How early in the planning stages were these terrorist threats or plots, and were they disrupted in Australia or overseas?

Former Home Affairs secretary Mike Pezzullo, who was removed from his position by the government in 2023, describes last week’s revelation from the ASIO boss of multiple disruptions since Bondi as “extraordinary”.

“16 over nine months is almost going at two a month, which is just extraordinary. So well done, ASIO, and well done its partners, principally the AFP,” Mr Pezzullo says.

Over the weekend there was another reminder of that terror threat still facing Australia, with federal police announcing they had charged a sixth Melbourne man as part of an ongoing investigation into a group accessing and distributing ISIS propaganda online.

A Melbourne court heard a phone belonging to 30-year-old Mohammad Ahmadzai allegedly contained violent extremist material including videos showing beheadings, an offence which carries a maximum penalty of five years in prison.

Last Friday the ASIO boss also confirmed that his agency and its partners had foiled 33 “major terrorism plots” since 2014, the same year that Islamic State seized major territories in Iraq and Syria and declared a worldwide caliphate.

“33 plots foiled; many lives saved. That is not an accident. Nor is it a comprehensive measure of our success, or a complete picture of the security environment,” Mr Burgess wrote.

“The 33 figure refers to major plots where an attack is imminent or the planning advanced. There are many more potential terrorism cases where ASIO and law enforcement are able to intervene before the planning reaches an advanced stage.”

National security figures say the statistics on the number of “major” plots disrupted can underplay and mislead the public about the current state of the security environment, just the today’s official threat level of “probable” does not tell the whole story.

They believe that while the public is right to be shocked by an horrific event such as the Bondi shootings late last year, they should not be entirely surprised that such attacks can still occur in Australia.

Speaking with veteran radio broadcaster Neil Mitchell, the ASIO director general also described today’s “broadened” nature of terrorism, saying it had “evolved and changed as a result of 9/11, and the problem continues”.

“If you’re looking for good news, while violent extremism is still existing, mass casualty attacks are much harder today. I won’t rule it out, because anything is possible, but most of it today is the actions of individuals or a small group of individuals.”

“(They) can still cause death, (we had) 15 Australians killed at the hands of two individuals,” Mr Burgess said, referencing December’s shootings at Bondi Beach which prompted the anti-Semitism royal commission.

So far there has been no reaction to Mr Burgess’ latest comments from the Prime Minister or other members of the Albanese government, but Mr Pezzullo believes his warnings should prompt more discussion of counterterrorism preparedness in Australia.

“There used to be those large-scale exercises, including with actors in the street with sort of fake blood — we probably need to get back to that,” he argues.

“It’s very confronting and it does cause anxiety. But the problem is, if we don’t get back to those exercises, our muscle memory — it’s like a sporting team — your muscle memory drops off,” he warns.

The final report of the royal commission is expected to be delivered in December and will almost certainly make uncomfortable reading for politicians and officials alike as they continue to grapple with a far more complex security environment.