LATIKA M BOURKE: What crooning Macron says about Russia’s waning influence as leaders descended on Yerevan

On the face of it, Armenia, a tiny landlocked country of just three million people, does not appear to be a hotbed of the geopolitical competition underway between the world’s democracies and authoritarians.

Even less likely, was the French President picking up the microphone for some impromptu karaoke, with the Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan backing up on drums.

The French president was treated like a rockstar during his stay in Armenia, going for a run in Yerevan, the capital, taking part in streetwalks with Nikol Pashinyan, sipping tea and kissing babies.

It was a showstopper, as was his musical performance.

“I can’t remember the last time Macron stayed three nights in Istanbul,” one former Turkish diplomat observed to The Nightly, perhaps somewhat enviously.

Macron was the undoubted starpower but he was just one of many leaders who descended on Yerevan this week.

The UK’s Keir Starmer, Italy’s Georgia Meloni, the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen all stopped traffic as they flew in to attend the European Political Community (EPC).

The most unexpected attendee was Canada’s Mark Carney, who has been tacking closer to Europe ever since US President Donald Trump’s threats to make Canada a 51st state.

It has prompted suggestions that Canada, already a part of NATO, should join the EU. For now, and ten years after the Brexit referendum, the EPC serves as a symbolic enough vehicle for Brussels to showcase its lure.

The EPC gathers European leaders regardless of their status within the European Union. First proposed by Macron in 2022 following Vladimir Putin’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, it has become one of Europe’s more promising architectures, drawing in non-EU states for leader-level discussions on issues that require cooperation outside the 27-member bloc, especially security and migration.

It’s eighth gathering was a standout. Not so much for what it achieved (the EPC doesn’t issue formal communiques like a G7 or G20) but for the power of it’s reach across Europe, right into the South Cacucus, the lesser studied countries that form Putin’s heartland.

But this is an area worth paying some attention to, because a transformation is taking place, and it is not good for Russia.

Armenia, as host of the EPC rolled out the red carpet for Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky who is regularly invited.

“It matters that Armenia stands here with all Europeans and for the first time in 24 years by the way, a visit by the President of Ukraine, this means a lot!” President Zelensky said.

Like Ukraine, Armenia, is a post-Soviet state.

But unlike Ukraine, Armenia stayed very close to Russia, and is part of the Eurasian Economic Union and the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CTSO).

The former provides a customs union, like the EU’s single market and the latter is a NATO-style alliance between Russia and post-Soviet states.

When Russia invaded Ukraine, Armenia was neutral.

But Armenians view of Russia changed due to a different war.

When Azjerbaijan attacked Armenia in 2022, over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh war, Azerbaijan won, claiming the territory and in 2023 expelled the ethnic Armenians who lived there, in spite of Russian peacekeepers deployed there to uphold a previously agreed truce.

Armenia applied to the CSTO’s five member states for help when Azerbaijan attacked.

“No one came to help us,” Armenia’s deputy foreign minister Robert Abisoghomonyan told the Latika Takes podcast, recorded on the sidelines of the Yerevan Dialogue this week.

He said this exacerbated an already developed sense of frustration within Armenian society about Russia.

“It was an understanding that we should not rely here on Russia when it comes to security issues.”

In 2024, 50,000 Armenians petitioned the parliament to pass a law to start the process of seeking EU membership. It was an historic step in the country’s democratic journey.

“It was the first (petition) that was adopted that had major support in the society,” Mr Abisoghomonyan said.

Mr Abisoghomonyan says something much larger, and unstoppable is taking place in Armenia.

“Since 2018 when a non-violent revolution took place in the Republic of Armenia, the democratic path in Armenia started then, is now irreversible,” he said.

”So the society has chosen a democratic path and our task is only to strengthen these democratic values and only to enhance it.”

Armenia has frozen its participation in the defence alliance but still enjoys good trading ties with Russia, given its membership of the Eurasion Economic Union.

“We are not trying to cooperate with the partners at the expense of the others,” Mr Abisoghomonyan said.

But it is difficult to avoid the comparison with Ukraine. If Armenians are genuine about wanting to be European rather than Eurasian — and there ever comes a day when the EU opens it’s door to new members, something far from guaranteed or even likely — that would force a choice between being part of a Russian customs union or the European one.

Putin’s response to Ukraine’s pursuit of a Ukrainian destiny was to invade and try to erase the Ukrainian people and her culture.

Next month Armenia goes to the elections and the pro-European government could lose. Armenia has called in EU technical teams to help them fight off Russian meddling.

Not that Putin is trying to hide it. Last month, the Russian President told Pashinyan at the Kremlin that he wanted Russian prisoners to be able to contest in Armenia’s elections.

“We will not interfere. But we would like them all to be able, at the very least, to participate in this domestic political process,” Putin said.

“Only citizens holding an Armenian passport – and no other nationality – can take part in these elections. With all due respect, under the Constitution of the Republic of Armenia, people with Russian passports cannot stand as candidates for parliament or prime minister,” Pashinyan retorted.

“Many have long thought that Armenia’s destiny is possible only under the patronage of Russia,” Macron told the Yerevan Dialouge this week.

“We saw that Russia abandoned Armenia, we understood that greatest dreams are not reality.”

Alongside the EPC, the EU and Armenia also held a separate summit. Armenia has signed agreements with the EU, France and the UK aimed at deepending both economic and security ties. The UK, for instance, is going to provide military training to Armenia.

Next year, the EPC will meet in Baku, in neighbouring Azerbaijan. Armenia and Azerbaijan are now at peace — it is one of the wars that US President Donald Trump insists he solved.

In truth, the two countries agreed for peace before Trump re-entered the White House. But American backing and support for opening up transport links through Armenia, which sits at the crossroads of Europe, Russia and the Middle East is crucial.

Mr Abisoghomonyan believes the economic dimension will ensure the peace endures more than anything else, because it is in both parties’ financial interests.

But he does not think Armenia’s quest for democracy should be viewed as anything exotic.

“ I believe the whole world nowadays is fighting for this, because all the values, the order established previously is now shaking and the world is fighting for keeping their values,” he said.

“Of course, it’s a little bit difficult for new democracies. But still if you believe in these values and you have the will to strengthen, to continue this path, I’ll say here, we should work together with like-minded partners in order to enhance and in order to reach the end goal.”