Latika M Bourke: Andrew Hastie’s Trump criticism signals a looming fight over Iran & Liberal Party direction

Andrew Hastie gave a best-on-field performance with during an interview on Saturday in which he criticised US President Donald Trump’s “huge miscalculation” in Iran, smashed previous economic policy taboos and set out a searing attack on net zero.

But it is a primitive interpretation to view his comments as bad news for the new Opposition Leader Angus Taylor and therefore good news for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.

Nearer term, he is actually setting the stage for an almighty battle within what remains of the dying Coalition.

Longer term, he threatens to represent something far more daring, high risk but potentially high-yield — a complete break with yesterday’s politics, and repudiation of MAGA-infused populism that is cannibalising main-party politics.

The latter is most immediately important. Mr Hastie, who wanted to run for the Liberal leadership after Sussan Ley’s failure in the job, was overtaken by Angus Taylor in February.

His loss was a warning sign and a lesson to be learned — potential on paper means nothing unless it is matched by performance and the party room. Many colleagues viewed last year’s campaigns on net zero and immigration as well as his misguided comments on abortion, as a not-so-subtle attempt to ape MAGA.

In a Substack post about the assassination of MAGA Christian influencer Charlie Kirk, Mr Hastie sounded Trump-like as he berated the “radical left,” and invoked MAGA’s oft-repeated criticisms about Western decline.

On Sunday, Mr Hastie staged an about-face on Donald Trump, building on prior criticisms of the US President for disrespecting Australia, for publicly calling out Australia for its support or perceived lack thereof for the war in Iran.

“It gives me a visceral reaction, because I think about what we’ve done over the last 100 years with the United States — First World War, Second World War, 500 dead in Vietnam, we were there in Iraq and Afghanistan — so we’ve been a good ally.” Mr Hastie, who fought in Afghanistan, told Insiders’ David Speers.

He said that while he supported the US alliance, President Trump’s behaviour towards Australia would erode support in the public as well as US credibility.

And on Iran, he deftly attacked the Prime Minister for failing to invest in defence, leaving Australia unable to support the US if requested, and linked Pauline Hanson to Mr Trump.

“I’ve got a brother in the Navy — the question is, could I put my hand on heart as a parliamentarian and send him and his shipmates into the Strait of Hormuz? And I can’t, because I know we don’t have the capability to defend against Iranian drones and missiles,” he said.

“Now, the government should have remediated that — that’s on the Albanese Government — but nor, like Pauline Hanson, should we be quick to commit Australians to a war that I think is going to be much more complex than otherwise suggested.”

Mr Hastie is in touch with the public on this issue. Newspoll published by News Corp on Monday showed 72 per cent of Australians disapprove of Trump’s war in Iran and 63 per cent said they opposed contributing to a naval deployment to secure the Strait of Hormuz.

Unlike the Prime Minister and even the Opposition leader, the former SAS captain is in a unique position to “ask hard questions” of the White House out loud, thus enabling the Liberals’ crucially needed attack on One Nation.

This repudiation of MAGA was in contrast to Angus Taylor’s odd decision to lecture the President of the EU Commission Ursula von der Leyen, about Western civilisation — a MAGA trope that the movement relies upon to justify interfering in European politics to propel lookalike movements on the continent.

Mr Hastie’s back-to-basics included exploding Liberal party taboos around capital gains tax and negative gearing. This debate has long been heading the Liberals’ way. The party polls just 11 per cent with renters according to YouGov, and fixing access to housing would be an enormous vote-winner at the next election.

Getting this policy right should be the next successful prime minister’s priority. It is a rare issue that speaks to city and regional voters as well as disaffected left and right, all the voters the Liberals need to seduce if they are to ever form government again.

“We need to overhaul the whole system. We either fix the system, or it’s torn down by people like Pauline Hanson,” Mr Hastie warned.

He is right to warn that “One Nation wants to supplant us as the major party on the centre right.” The Coalition is out of alarm bells at the same time as Australian politics has ceased operating normally, as last weekend’s South Australian elections showed, with the stunning rise in voter support for the insurgent party.

Opening up a willingness to address capital gains tax and negative gearing will cause a fight inside the Liberal party, but it will fade in comparison to the battle over Mr Hastie’s planned reindustrialisation of the Australian economy.

Here, Mr Hastie will need to be most careful. Australia is not an economy of scale like the US, EU or China and picking industry winners will have to be done sparingly and with maximum impact and delivery for Australia’s energy resilience.

But he is correctly tapping into what the country, particularly those considering One Nation, is looking for — a conservative radical.

By just answering questions straight instead of speaking with talking point word salads, Mr Hastie showed a willingness to do things differently.

Not all his colleagues are overjoyed. Many see it as straying too far from classic Liberal positions and worry that trying to pursue broad-stroke reindustrialisation of the economy would fall over in a heap under pressure.

But Mr Hastie was encouraged by the response. He opened his phone after his television interview to a torrent of emails, far more than usual. Most were from non-Liberal voters who expressed desperation for a credible alternative and said they were encouraged by his comments around the US relationship, home ownership and his willingness to speak candidly. One even made a $1500 donation.

It is natural to view all of this as a threat to Angus Taylor’s leadership of the Liberal Party. But that misses the bigger picture. Mr Hastie is impatient to farewell the incremental style of politics that has dominated electoral success for Labor and usher in a new era of radicalism. He may find the times suit a plainspeaking risk-taker.