LATIKA M BOURKE: Anthony Albanese’s broken promise Budget revives Labor’s old tax war on wealth

Anthony Albanese’s 2026 Broken Promise Budget is the one that Bill Shorten and Chris Bowen wanted to deliver almost a decade ago.

Mr Shorten’s audacity, alongside a dose of arrogance, to pitch curbing capital gains and abolish negative gearing going forward cost Labor the 2019 election and him the leadership.

Three terms later Mr Albanese who was the benefactor of Shorten’s ambition, and his Treasurer Jim Chalmers have revived their favourite bogeyman — Donald Trump — to deliver Labor’s long-held agenda.

It is true that President Trump’s war in Iran has spiked inflation, caused a temporary shock to the Budget through the government’s cut to the fuel excise and could get worse.

“The shocks from around the world are coming at us faster and more frequently,” the Treasurer told the House.

But it is galling to use the war in Iran as the pretext for the Budget raid on boomer wealth with the goal of locking down Gen Z and Millenial votes. Mr Shorten was plotting last decade what Labor really wanted to do.

Mr Chalmers has positioned a life-sized Mr Trump in front of him to serve as his political shield.

“That global uncertainty is not a reason to delay reform, it’s why we must move with urgency and ambition,” Mr Chalmers said.

“The challenges coming at us, the opportunities ahead of us and the better future that Australians deserve, will not wait for a time when all is quiet in the world.”

He may get away with it.

Abolishing negative gearing except on new builds going forward, taxing capital gains as well as trust incomes is political low-hanging fruit for Labor.

It could also be lucrative come the next election, if Labor can successfully make their case to parents and grandparents who share their younger generations’ anxieties about stepping onto the housing ladder.

But it presents the Liberals, gasping, dying breaths, a lifeline too.

Here, they can say that Labor is the Labor they always warned about — intent on raising taxes and worse, breaking promises made more than 50 times — to do so.

Trust is an important commodity in a grievance-first political climate. Labor is playing political footsie with the devil in this respect.

But the government has evidently sized up Angus Taylor as an Opposition Leader who could present less of a threat than Sussan Ley and will be distracted by the assault of One Nation on the Coalition’s right flank.

In this respect, they are correct to determine that this is the time to launch their snatch and grab raid on older Australians.

Mr Albanese may be an incrementalist, but he is also a canny opportunist.

The prime minister has finally shaken off the plodding pace that has defined his premiership, and winning formula to date with this Budget.

He will deliver $250 tax breaks to low-income workers in the latter part of his second term as he vies for a third.

This Budget could determine whether he is successful or not.

It is the biggest risk of his prime ministership so far, because unlike the failed Voice referendum, his decisions will cause some voters economic pain, and the inflation genie is not one he can be assured he can put back into its bottle.

The Treasurer even admitted that a worst-case scenario in Iran could lead to inflation returning to Covid-era levels of seven per cent.

The Liberals need to lay out markers that determine the success of Labor’s high-taxing and high-spending ways — is life easier and cheaper, and if not, was giving them 94 seats worth it?

In this way, they can launch a two-front fight back against Labor and One Nation who have dominated on immigration but resonate less when it comes to credible economic policy.

The government’s own budget documents state that changes to the tax system will help around 75,000 homeowners into the market over the next decade.

Forget about measuring this over ten years, when surely Anthony Albanese will have long retired to his Central Coast beach house, between now and 2028 when the next election is due, Labor’s promise is to deliver 15,000 homes into the hands of new owners.

As the Opposition’s housing spokesman Andrew Bragg notes, Labor’s modelling on housing has a dubious track record.

“The last time Mr Albanese put modelling out there, he said that the 5 per cent deposits would only drive a 0.6 per cent increase in prices over six years. It ended up being a 6 per cent increase in six months. So I can’t wait to see the Treasury modelling,” Mr Bragg said on Sky.

But as Senator Bragg rightly pointed out, complaining will not be enough. The Liberals cannot go to another election with a ‘cupboard is bare’ approach. In this respect, they need to show a little Bill Shorten ambition of their own.

“If we don’t have a big, bold plan to revive the economy and the country, we will be dead and soon,” Senator Bragg told The Nightly.

He is right.

As much as this is a budget that delivers for Labor true believers it is also an opportunity for the Liberals. It cements Labor’s re-engineering of the state to one of big government, which makes voters dependent on welfare and an expanding healthcare system.

Note the cancellation of subsidies for older Australians using private health care, something the tax system incentivises Australians to take up, in favour of ever-expanding Medicare clinics.

Further, Labor has given up all pretence of attempting to balance the Budget or deliver surpluses. Now delivering lower deficits than previously forecast is enough, and for Mr Chalmers to shamelessly promote himself as a “responsible” Treasurer.

It is the Liberals’ task to convince the public that he is anything but.