Political researcher Sam Palmer uncovers rare insight into psychological forces behind One Nation’s rise

Political researcher Sam Palmer has looked into the hearts of One Nation voters and concluded they fear Australia is in so much trouble — caused by immigration, inflation and housing shortages — it may be close to the point of no return.

Ten One Nation voters from Liberal and 10 from Labor backgrounds granted in-depth interviews to Mr Palmer explaining why they swapped parties, offering a rare insight into the psychological forces behind one of the greatest political shifts in a generation.

Former Labor voters cited a disillusionment with a party they feel they can no longer trust, citing the Voice referendum, Budget tax increases and other controversial decisions.

The Liberals are fleeing a party riven by leadership turnover they believe has been unable to present a credible alternative to Labor.

“I’ve been a lifetime Liberal voter but they’re both as bad as each other to be honest,” a 43-year-old male former Liberal voter from Victoria told Mr Palmer. “Constant leadership changes and nothing to say. It’s just a mess.”

The qualitative research contains a big warning for One Nation, which leads the Coalition in polls: while these recruits like what they see as leader Pauline Hanson’s authenticity, plain-speaking style and consistent beliefs, they are not sure her party is capable of governing Australia.

“Support for One Nation right now is real, but for a lot of these voters it’s also conditional,” Mr Palmer said. “They like what One Nation says but they still have some reservations about the party’s policy depth and ability to govern if elected.”

Winning power

The latest opinion poll, which was conducted by Roy Morgan Research, estimated One Nation support at 22.5 per cent, Coalition support at 21.5 per cent and Labor support at 28 per cent. Other polls over the past month have put One Nation support between 26 and 31 per cent, a consistent trend that suggests the right-wing party is in a strong position to contest the Victoria election in November, the NSW election next March and the next Federal election, which must be held by May, 2028.

But political analysts don’t know if One Nation can sustain its support through election campaigns, when the parties are subjected to extra scrutiny. Four months before the Victorian election One Nation has not selected any candidates, appointed a leader or proposed policies.

One Nation has two seats in the Federal Parliament’s Lower House, which chooses the government, and none in Victoria or NSW, making it more likely it will emerge as a minor party than a government in any State or Federally.

The research by Mr Palmer, a director at Civic Vista, shows that One Nation voters from both backgrounds believe high immigration is putting pressure on housing, in turn raising the cost of living. Neither group trusts the establishment and does not feel politicians are acting in Australia’s best interests.

Former Labor voters expressed frustration almost exclusively at the Albanese Government, accusing it of breaking promises and failing to represent ordinary Australians. They described their disillusionment as “a personal breach of trust”, according to a summary of the research.

Former Liberal voters spread blame more broadly. They complained about day-to-day mismanagement by the Labor Government and accused the Liberal Party of internal dysfunction.

“This cohort often framed what they viewed as Australia’s decline in structural or social terms rather than purely economic ones, with several describing a sense that Australia’s social fabric is eroding in ways that cannot easily be reversed,” the report said.

Senator Hanson, who co-founded the protest party in 1997, was repeatedly given credit for operating a fish and chip shop in Ipswich, Queensland, especially by former Labor voters.

“She says what we all think, and politicians don’t say what they think,” a 56-year-old former Labor voter from country NSW said. “They think very, very carefully about what comes out of their mouth. But she doesn’t have a filter. She just says what she thinks. She’s honest.”

The party’s poll numbers dropped after Senator Hanson told the National Press Club on June 17 that she wanted Australia to be a “monoculture” and questioned privately funded paid-parental leave. She later said she would not abolish parental leave and cited the Socceroos as an example of monoculture.