US-Iran war live updates: Israel to strike Lebanon ‘in coming hours’ as Bahrain oil refinery up in flames

One of Australia’s biggest banks, NAB, is now forecasting inflation hitting five per cent for the first time in three years as the war in the Middle East sparks panic buying of petrol.

Sydney’s average of $2.15 a litre for basic 91-octane unleaded petrol is now only a shade below the $2.20 price Australian motorists were paying in March 2022, after Russia’s Ukraine invasion led to sanctions.

More crude oil price rises would see the average cost of petrol hit new all-time highs within days.

The conflict is already stopping the supply of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz, which is leading to fuel rationing to distributors by United Petroleum, Australia’s largest independent retailer.

The immediate retail price increases for petrol and diesel, without the usual seven to 10-day lag, has led to long queues at service stations with some customers stockpiling fuel in jerrycans, NRMA spokesman Peter Khoury said on Monday.

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Iran is at a historic crossroads, and for the first time since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, the Iranian people face a real opportunity for transformational change.

The removal of the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as well as much of the regime leadership, in the military operation by the United States and Israel, has created light at the end of a tunnel forged by decades of brutal repression, violence and denial of basic rights by the Islamic Republic.

In the past two months, young Iranian men and women have shown the most extraordinary courage, in protesting against their regime’s tyranny, often at enormous personal risk, demonstrating that real and sustained change must be guided by the hopes and aspirations of the Iranian people themselves, but also supported by Western allies, including Australia.

Although hope is finally within reach, these are still very early days, and the road ahead will be long and fraught with many challenges.

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Nine days into his war against Iran and Donald Trump’s plan is unclear. Some experts have a intriguing suggestion: capture an island that handles 90 per cent of Iranian oil, cutting off the regime’s primary funding source.

Tiny Kharg Island could be the key to the whole war. About 10km long and 25km from the mainland, the island’s terminals load tankers with roughly 1.5 million barrels of oil a day — most destined for China.

The idea of taking the island by force was proposed on the weekend by Michael Rubin, a Republican policy analyst who was an adviser on Iran and Iraq to Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld in the early 2000s.

Dr Rubin told a US media outlet he had shared his suggestion with the Trump administration as a way to get around the biggest problem facing the US president: air wars have never been able to remove governments on their own.

“If they can’t sell their own oil, they can’t make payroll,” Dr Rubin told Politico.

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US President Donald Trump is reportedly not pleased that Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei has been elected as Iran’s Supreme Leader.

Mr Trump, who announced the killing of former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei after a joint US-Israel operation in Iran, allegedly made the comment to a Fox News host.

Fox News Anchor Brian Kilmeade, who hosts One Nation with Brian Kilmeade on Fox News on Sundays, said he spoke with Mr Trump and claimed the US President said “I am not happy” about the Supreme Leader’s election.

Mr Trump has not publicly commented on the Supreme Leader’s accession yet.

Former Australian ambassador to the United States Joe Hockey says the US could deploy troops to Iran within days as the conflict escalates.

Speaking to Sky News, Hockey said discussions in Washington suggest American forces may soon enter Iran.

“There are going to be boots on the ground, that is the expectation at the moment,” Mr Hockey said.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if by the end of the next week we see some American boots on the ground,” he added.

“There is no doubt that Israel is determined to have regime change in Iran.

“I don’t think Donald Trump has been particularly committed to regime change as much as he’s been committed to removing the threat of nuclear weapons and the capacity for Iran to do damage to US military bases and the US mainland.”

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US President Donald Trump says any decision on when to end the war with Iran will be a “mutual” one made alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, according to The Times of Israel.

In a brief telephone interview on Sunday, Mr Trump claimed that Iran would have destroyed Israel if he and Netanyahu had not been involved.

“Iran was going to destroy Israel and everything else around it … We’ve worked together. We’ve destroyed a country that wanted to destroy Israel,” he said.

When asked whether he alone would decide when the war ends or if Mr Netanyahu would have a say, Mr Trump said:

“I think it’s mutual … a little bit. We’ve been talking. I’ll make a decision at the right time, but everything’s going to be taken into account.”

Mr Trump was also asked if Israel could continue fighting against Iran after the US halts its strikes. He declined to entertain the hypothetical scenario, adding:

“I don’t think it’s going to be necessary.”

Suspected cluster ballistic missiles have flown over the skies of Israel, with some reportedly intercepted over Jerusalem, with reports emerging that the outskirts of Tel Aviv may have been hit.

Israeli media claims there have been injuries and damage, stating this was from shrapnel from intercepted missiles, while other outlets have claimed an area was hit.

Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian says the election of Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei heralds in “a new era of honour and authority for the Iranian nation”.

Mr Pezeshkian said Iran’s unity in the wake of the death of Imam Khamenei proved the regime is an “impregnable fortress”.

In a statement on state TV, Mr Pezeshkian said the new Supreme Leader, the son of the killed former Supreme Leader, would lead Iran to “a brilliant horizon of sustainable independence, scientific and technological progress, and comprehensive development.”

The Iranian President celebrated “the exemplary resistance of the noble Iranian nation and the determination of Iran’s self-sacrificing and courageous armed forces” against the “brutal and blatant aggression by the Zionist regime and the criminal US”.

Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, who served in Iraq and Afghanistan, said the US is bringing its “enemy to their knees”.

Mr Hegseth said that a lot of “foolish approaches” were taken in the Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts, but that Operation Epic Fury is different.

“This is war. This is conflict. This is bringing your enemy to their knees,” Mr Hegseth told the US 60 Minutes program.

“Whether they will have a ceremony in Tehran Square and surrender, that’s up to them.”

Department of War Secretary Pete Hegseth says Iran will need to surrender unconditionally, whether they know it or not.

Mr Hegseth sat down with the US 60 Minutes TV program to give an update on Operation Epic Fury, saying that Iran has “no chance”.

Asked what unconditional surrender, a term used by US President Donald Trump regarding the war, meant, Mr Hegseth said: “It means we are fighting to win”.

“It means we set the terms. We’ll know when they’re not capable of fighting.

“There’ll be a point where they’ll have no choice but to do that, whether they know it or not, they will be combat ineffective. They will surrender.”