Oil prices set to hit $US200 by June, Argonaut Securities analyst predicts
A physical supply shortfall could send oil prices spiralling higher.
Benchmark oil prices could still surge towards $US200 a barrel in 2026 as physical supply shortages from overseas start to impact Australia over the next three months, according to Argonaut Securities analyst Sarah Kerr.
On Wednesday afternoon, Brent Crude prices eased to $US104.64 a barrel, although have still surged nearly 50 per cent since the US and Israel attacked Iran on February 27.
“We think supply disruptions will extend well into 2026, and with no signs of government taking energy security seriously outside the news cycle, we anticipate increased market volatility, further geopolitical supply shocks, and higher oil prices for longer,” said Ms Kerr.
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By continuing you agree to our Terms and Privacy Policy.In an address to the nation on Wednesday evening, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is expected to warn citizens fuel supply shortages could worsen ahead and suggest they cut back on driving where possible to conserve fuel.
“We are no longer looking at a standard cyclical recovery, we are witnessing a structural repricing of supply that bears uncomfortable parallels to the 1973/74 oil crisis,” said Ms Kerr. “Just as the 1973 embargo quadrupled prices and permanently altered global energy policy, the current paralysis of the Strait of Hormuz is forcing a radical reassessment of global energy security and redundancy.”
Argonaut now forecasts oil prices to average $US150 a barrel over the quarter to June 2026 and $130 a barrel over the September quarter.
“In our base case we anticipate the disruptions in the Middle East continues for several months, with global energy prices peaking in the second quarter of 2026,” said Ms Kerr.
UBS not so aggressive
Other analysts do not expect such aggressive prices raises. UBS’s Australian Energy team only expects Brent oil to average $US100 a barrel over the second quarter on the basis that the Middle East conflict ends by early April.
If the conflict drags on to May and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for at least another month UBS warned benchmark Brent Crude could average $US130 a barrel.
As of April 1 the Australian government has reduced the fuel excise by 26.3 cents per litre to bring some cost of living relief to motorists.
