JENI O’DOWD: Pro-migration Budget will put more wind in One Nation’s sails

Tuesday’s Federal Budget confirmed what many Australians already suspected: despite mounting pressure on housing, infrastructure and the cost of living, Labor has no intention of seriously slowing migration.

Fresh Budget projections show net overseas migration remaining historically high over the next three years, despite repeated promises to rein in the numbers.

And, for voters struggling with soaring rents, mortgages and power bills, that frustration is now beginning to reshape Australian politics.

Which is why Anthony Albanese’s smug response to the Coalition’s loss in the Farrer by-election on the weekend bordered on delusional.

The Prime Minister blamed Coalition infighting and the fallout from Sussan Ley being dumped from the Liberal leadership for One Nation’s huge win. What he conveniently ignored was the far bigger message voters were sending.

Budget figures reveal nearly 765,000 migrants are expected to arrive in Australia over the next three years. New projections show the Government expects 295,000 arrivals in the current financial year, followed by 245,000 in 2026/27 and 225,000 in 2027/28.

For many Australians, it proves the Government is unwilling to confront the scale of population growth and its impact on daily life.

One Nation has clearly tapped into this simmering resentment, which does not just impact the Liberal Party.

There is also a natural ideological overlap between the Coalition and One Nation, a fact increasingly discussed in Canberra.

The stronger One Nation gets, especially in conservative regional electorates, the harder it becomes for the Coalition to simply brush it aside.

And every seat the party takes from Labor or the crossbench has the potential to shift the political centre of gravity further to the right, while increasing pressure for some form of co-operation between the two parties.

As respected veteran pollster Antony Green wrote in his blog: “What the Coalition and One Nation parties need is a relationship like that between Labor and the Greens.

“The two left-of-centre parties engage in bitter local contests, but deliver strong preference flows despite their campaigns.”

The biggest shift towards a possible alliance, however, has been Barnaby Joyce himself.

The former deputy prime minister joined One Nation in late 2025 after leaving the Nationals, giving conservative voters what commentators called a “permission structure” to support them.

Pauline Hanson has long said she is open to working with the Coalition on issues like immigration, energy and law and order, although historically the Liberals have publicly kept their distance.

That line is now looking blurrier.

In the Farrer by-election, Liberal and National preferences flowed to One Nation ahead of independent Michelle Milthorpe, playing a significant role in David Farley securing the seat.

Joyce was explicit after the result, saying One Nation was targeting seats in Labor strongholds across western Sydney, including the western and south-west electorates held by Energy Minister Chris Bowen and Immigration Minister Tony Burke.

“That would be a good start to get this country on track,” Pauline Hanson said.

What makes this especially dangerous for Labor is that conservative politics in Australia is no longer as fragmented as it once appeared.

A growing number of voters are moving quite comfortably among the Liberals, Nationals and One Nation, particularly on issues such as migration, cost-of-living pressures, energy policy and frustration with inner-city progressive politics.

And increasingly, elections are not just about individual parties. They are about broader political alignments and where preferences land.

Labor understands this well on the left, where the Greens’ preferences are often critical to winning and holding seats. A similar relationship between the Coalition and One Nation on the right is no longer hypothetical.

On Monday, Opposition Treasury spokesman Tim Wilson refused to rule out a future Liberal-One Nation coalition, telling the ABC: “Of course, we traditionally form a Coalition with the National Party, but it’s up to the Australian people to decide who they want to vote for.”

However, yesterday Liberal frontbencher Andrew Hastie ruled out any Coalition-One Nation arrangement, although Coalition agreements are not decided by ambitious frontbenchers. Significantly, the actual leader, Angus Taylor, has not rejected the idea.

Unlike the teal independents, who disrupt the Liberal vote in wealthy inner-city seats, One Nation’s support is growing in outer suburban and regional electorates where voters are bearing the brunt of housing pressure, infrastructure strain and rapid population growth.

And if One Nation keeps building support while directing preferences back to the Coalition, and vice versa, the broader conservative side of politics could ultimately emerge stronger, not weaker.

Which is why Anthony Albanese may want to take the Farrer result more seriously instead of simply dismissing it as Liberal Party infighting.