Australia is expected to add another 1.4 million people over the next four years

Australia is set to add another 1.4 million people over the next four years with immigration forecasts revised upwards in the Treasury Budget papers.

The national population is forecast to grow from 28 million, come the end of June this year, to 29.4 million by the 2029-30 financial year.

The immigration slowdown promised by Labor is taking longer than expected with 295,000 now expected to have arrived in Australia in 2025-26 — on a permanent and long-term basis.

That’s up from the 260,000 forecast a little more than a year ago, on a net basis with departures factored in.

More migrants are also forecast for 2026-27 with 245,000 now expected, up from 225,000 projected in Labor’s pre-election Budget of March 2025.

Net overseas migration was forecast to grow by 225,000 in 2028-29 and 2029-30, roughly where it was in the 2010s and lower than last year’s levels above 300,000.

Fertility was tipped to increase slightly from a record low of 1.44 now to 1.49 by 2029-30.

Western Australia was forecast to have Australia’s strongest growth in percentage terms while Victoria, now a slowing housing market, was tipped to be adding the most number of new residents.

Iron-ore rich WA was predicted to add 184,000 new residents over the next four years as its population grew by 5.9 per cent to 3.3m.

Victoria was tipped to add 405,000 new residents, the most of any State, as its population grew to 7.6 million with the second-highest growth pace of 5.6 per cent.

Queensland, despite a strong property market, was expected to come third in the growth stakes, with a 5.5 per cent increase that would take its population to 6.1m with 314,000 new residents.

New South Wales, despite receiving the largest influx of overseas migrants, was tipped to have a slower population growth pace of 4.2 per cent owing to a big exodus from Sydney to other states.

Australia’s most populated State was expected to add another 365,000 people, taking its total to a touch over 9m.

The smaller, provincial states were expected to have more subdued growth.

South Australia was expected to add just 50,000 over the next four years, taking its population to 1.972m.

The 2.6 per cent population increase would be weak despite Adelaide being home to double-digit house price rises.

Tasmania was only expected to add 8000 people by June 2030, taking its population to 586,000 with the nation’s weakest population growth of 1.4 per cent.

The Australian Capital Territory was tipped to add 25,000 people as Canberra’s population swelled by 5.1 per cent to 516,000.

The Northern Territory, the least populated part of Australia, was expected to add another 8000 people taking its population to 275,000.

In the face of faster than expected national population growth, unemployment was tipped to rise from 4.25 per cent this financial year to 4.5 per cent in 2026-27 and 2027-28.

A wage price index of 3.25 per cent is forecast for this financial year as inflation rose to 5 per cent, the highest level in three years, meaning workers will be getting a real wage cut of 1.75 per cent.