Australia’s domestic terrorism threat level raised as ASIO sounds alarm bell

The prospect of violence from “lone wolf” actors — radicalised online and driven by a sense of self-righteousness or personal grievance — has forced Australian security agencies to increase the nation’s terror threat level.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, ASIO director-general Mike Burgess and Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus announced on Monday the threat level had been raised to “probable”, as the risk of politically motivated violence increased.

It had been lowered to possible in late 2022 after eight years at the higher level.

But unlike when the threat level was raised in 2014 in response to ISIS, the concern now is the culmination of escalating risks posed by various fringe elements of society, frustration from the COVID-19 response, and exacerbated by deteriorating social cohesion and domestic tensions around the war in Gaza.

Agencies are particularly concerned by how quickly people are becoming radicalised, a threat they say has been exacerbated by social media.

They warn there is a 50 per cent chance of an attack in the next 12 months, any of which are likely to be low cost, locally financed and using readily acquired weapons with relatively simple tactics.

There have been eight alleged attacks or thwarted plans in the last four months, including the Wakeley church incident in Western Sydney, where a bishop was stabbed during a sermon while on a live stream, and the incident in Perth where a 16-year-old stabbed a man outside a hardware store.

Mr Burgess said Australia’s security environment had become “more volatile and more unpredictable”, as more Australians embraced a “more diverse range of extreme ideologies” and looked to violence to advance their cause.

“Politically motivated violence encompasses terrorism, but is broader than that and covers any violent act or any violent threat intended or likely to achieve a political objective. This includes violent protests, riots, and attacks on a politician or democratic institutions,” he said.

“Unfortunately, here and overseas, we’re seeing spikes in political polarisation and intolerance, uncivil debate and unpeaceful protests. Anti-authority beliefs are growing, trust in institutions is eroding, provocative inflammatory behaviours are being normalised.”

John Coyne from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute said while the decision to raise the threat level had been somewhat inevitable, the shift in language away from “terrorism” to “politically motivated violence” was surprising.

“(What) we are really talking about is no longer acts necessarily designed to create terror and fear, acts to further a political cause, but spontaneous acts of political violence be they violent protests or other similar activities,” he told The Nightly.

Dr Coyne said security agencies and the government had to walk the fine line between allowing freedom of speech and keeping the country safe.

“They don’t want to be the thought police. Having an extremist ideology or extremist beliefs, while awful, is in fact lawful. But violent extremism isn’t,” he said.

“They’re trying to walk the tightrope of not impinging on people’s democratic rights… that’s a challenging space.”

Mr Albanese said the change in threat level did not mean a terrorist attack was “inevitable”, nor was there an “imminent threat or danger”.

Nonetheless, he said his government had a responsibility to be vigilant.

“The advice that we have received is that more Australians are embracing a more diverse range of extreme ideologies,” Mr Albanese said.

The Prime Minister and Mr Burgess reiterated calls for Australians to lower the temperature of debate.

The ASIO boss said community leaders, politicians and media needed to watch their words and actions amid heightened emotions and social tension.

This fragile atmosphere has worsened since Hamas’ terrorist attack on Israel last October, with deteriorating social cohesion in Australia aggravating tensions and threatening society.

The debate and increasingly aggressive protests around the Israel-Hamas conflict have been coupled with a rising self-righteousness that is described as “awful, lawful and very unhelpful”.

“Be very careful about that (language used) because there is a direct correlation between inflamed language, inflamed tension, and violence — something we all own,” Mr Burgess said.

But he noted none of the terrorism threats investigated since October had been inspired by Gaza, nor orchestrated by offshore terrorist leaders.

However, he said the conflict had “driven more emotion and heat into society”.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton pointed to the heated protest outside the Opera House in the days after the October 7 attack as an example, accusing Mr Albanese of not responding strongly enough at the time to the anti-semitism.

“I think we should be very clear about the fact that in our country, we adhere to a strong set of values, we adhere to the rule of law, we have respectful debate,” the Liberal leader said.

Mr Burgess said there was “plenty of antisemitism, but there’s plenty of Islamophobia at the same time” among those being targeted and those being radicalised.

Security agencies have become increasingly concerned there is often little to no warning before any attack.

Young people were increasingly falling prey to this type of online radicalisation, with Mr Burgess saying children as young as 14 were becoming caught up in extremist plots.

Declining mental health among young males especially risks further exacerbating the threat.

The ASIO boss said anti-authority beliefs, a trend that increased during COVID and had gained momentum since October 7, were growing as trust in institutions was eroding.

“Individuals are embracing anti-authority ideologies, conspiracy theories, and diverse grievances. Some are combining multiple beliefs to create new hybrid ideologies,” he said.

“Many of these individuals will not necessarily show violent views but may still see violence as a legitimate way to affect political or societal change. All this creates a security climate that is more permissive and violent.”

Mr Albanese said many democracies were grappling with a global rise in radicalisation, particularly that of young people, and that social media had a role to play.

Parents had a responsibility to be aware of what kind of content their children were consuming online, and anyone with concerns that someone they knew was heading down a dark path should contact the national security hotline on 1800 123 400.

Mr Albanese also issued a warning to political leaders, especially the Greens, that “words matter”, and accused them of fuelling social disharmony with some members’ involvement in pro-Palestine protests.

“By all means engage in different political discourse — no one is suggesting that people should have conformity to particular views — but the way things are expressed is important and it is important also that people stick to facts and that they are not prepared to encourage misinformation,” he said.

Greens senator David Shoebridge slammed Mr Albanese for being “deeply irresponsible” in airing out his “political grievances”.

“Dismissing people’s well-founded concern about Australia’s role in the genocide in Gaza and insinuating that these concerns are somehow associated with a rise in terrorism risk levels will only further divide the community and doesn’t keep us safe,” Senator Shoebridge said.