THE WASHINGTON POST: Iran crisis complicates path for Keir Starmer rivals like Angela Rayner

While Keir Starmer’s hopes of reviving the UK economy and his premiership have been battered by the war in Iran, there may be a silver lining for the prime minister: The conflict could put off a leadership challenge.

Members of Parliament and aides in the governing party told Bloomberg that while Starmer still faces danger if Labour, as expected, takes massive losses in a set of local elections on May 7, his chances of surviving the rout have increased.

Speaking anonymously in order to be frank about internal party ructions, several MPs said the Middle East conflict made it harder for Angela Rayner, the prime minister’s top rival, to mount a coup.

Meanwhile the Polymarket prediction platform now sees just a 27 per cent chance of Starmer exiting by June 30, down from 45 per cent a week ago and well below the 67 per cent likelihood seen in February.

The improved sentiment toward Starmer is a rare bright point for a prime minister who’s seen both his popularity and that of his party plunge to record lows in recent months amid dissatisfaction with a series of unpopular policies and damaging U-turns.

The fallout from the Iran war, meanwhile, has turned expectations of interest rate cuts into hikes, with inflation projected to tilt upwards and the the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development warning Britain will suffer a bigger economic hit from the conflict than any other Group of Seven nation.

Nevertheless, on Iran, Britons say Starmer made the right call to stay out of the initial US-Israeli attack, and limit UK involvement since to operations in defence of British interests and allies in the Gulf. A YouGov poll this week put opposition to the war at 66 per cent and support at just 19 per cent.

One Labour MP suggested the war meant a challenge would likely be delayed to later this year or next year. They said it’s harder for Starmer’s opponents to make their case to replace him while he grapples with an international crisis.

Moreover, the premier has won plaudits even from some of his critics for resisting pressure from President Donald Trump to expand Britain’s role beyond allowing British bases to be used for defensive actions.

Another Labour official said it will be easier for Starmer’s rivals to persuade MPs to oust him if his fortunes had still not improved by the end of the year, which marks roughly the halfway point to the next election.

They argued Labour’s annual party conference in September could be a decisive moment for Starmer and his would-be successors. Polymarket puts the chances of Starmer leaving by the end of the year at 59 per cent, though that too is down from 67 per cent a week ago and 77 per cent two months ago.

The prime minister’s reprieve - for now - may have seemed unlikely only a few weeks ago after a torrid period in which he looked set to succumb to political scandal.

Bets on his political demise peaked in February as he faced intense criticism over links between the Labour grandee he appointed ambassador to Washington, Peter Mandelson, and disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein.

The furor cost the premier his top aide, Morgan McSweeney, a development that many at the time saw as a potentially fatal blow, and long-term ally Anas Sarwar, who leads the party in Scotland, publicly called for him to go. Nonetheless, MPs chose not to use that moment to move against the premier.

As the incumbent in Downing Street, Starmer enjoys some advantages which make him difficult to oust, such as a need for any challenger to secure the backing of 81 Labour MPs. He’s also benefited from the lack of an obvious replacement.

Some Labour MPs told Bloomberg the danger to Starmer was overstated, doubting whether any potential contenders would be able to amass the required support.

One said a view common among backbenchers, especially newly elected ones, is that the chaos and leadership changes under the last Conservative government crashed that party’s electoral appeal, and Labour shouldn’t make the same mistake.

Another MP said they wanted the government to be more decisive and deliver change more quickly, but that didn’t require replacing Starmer. MPs also reported they hadn’t seen evidence of the kind of support-gathering and coordination by the likes of Rayner in the corridors of Westminster that would be needed to force a leadership vote.

Rayner is the bookmakers’ favourite to replace Starmer in the event of a contest, but the war complicates her chances of successfully challenging, several MPs said.

Polling suggests Labour will haemorrhage council seats and lose control of the Welsh Parliament for the first time ever.

That presents Rayner with a window when she would be the clear front-runner, with Health Secretary Wes Streeting falling back in the race and Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham blocked from standing for the House of Commons seat he’d need to run for leader.

How the Iran conflict evolves could further complicate a May challenge because, as one MP argued, the party would not want to change leader if the crisis over the Strait of Hormuz leads to British naval assets being deployed to the region.

If the war means a post-elections challenge is off the cards, Burnham’s chances are greater, MPs said.

He would likely try again to run for parliament and it would be much harder for Starmer to prevent him from doing so again, they argued, given Labour’s defeat in the Manchester special election Burnham had wanted to run in and the premier’s vow to be more “inclusive.”

Burnham making it to parliament might see him supplant Rayner as the favourite to succeed Starmer, given his positive polling ratings and popularity in the party.

That could provide an incentive for her to move sooner. She gave a speech in Westminster last month which was widely seen as preparing for a challenge, and some MPs on the so-called soft-left of the party may be less squeamish about a move against the premier during a global crisis.

That leaves Rayner with a difficult political calculation to contemplate over the coming weeks. As one MP put it, a deferred challenge could see her miss her window.

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