RBA interest rates live updates: Reserve Bank decides to hold rates after inflation breaks out of comfort zone

Daniel Newell
The Nightly
As expected, the Reserve Bank has held the cash rate steady, spooked by last week’s quarterly inflation figure which busted out of the central bank’s comfort zone.
As expected, the Reserve Bank has held the cash rate steady, spooked by last week’s quarterly inflation figure which busted out of the central bank’s comfort zone. Credit: AntonioGuillem/Getty Images/iStockphoto

As expected, the Reserve Bank has held the cash rate steady, spooked by last week’s quarterly inflation figure which busted out of the central bank’s comfort zone.

In case you missed it, here’s your essential form guide to today’s race (and why the RBA is reluctant to offer any more rate relief, at least for now) ...

Rate Cut: Likely a late scratching. Had been looking the goods just last week until she stuck her head around the corner of Inflation’s stable on the way back from training. That clearly scared the bejesus out of her and she won’t trouble the bookies today. Sorry folks, this horse has bolted.

Unemployment: Resilience personified. Has been ticking along at a steady pace for much of the past year with only a few sign that he may just be starting to run a little hotter. The stewards will be keeping an eye out for any unexpected movements.

Inflation: Once thought tamed, last week showed you can never write her off. Was in fine form earlier this year when she was brought back to a trot. Tests last week revealed a spike in performance. All bets will be off if she and Unemployment are leading the pack at the final turn.

Rate Hike: A real outside punt. He hasn’t looked a chance since last 2023, but some bookies are starting to factor in a possible return to form, maybe next year?

Michele Bullock: AKA ‘The Governor’, she has looked good since taking the reins in September, 2023. Strong under pressure from the cameras, and you can guarantee she’ll be watching closely where Inflation and Unemployment sit in the field. If those two start to get any from her, she knows they’ll be hard to chase.

Homeowners: Don’t expect to hear much. The quiet achiever, he’s been rolling with the punches, just holding on for dear life since May, 2022. Absolutely no chance of a place and would just be happy to pass the post.

Stay with us and we’ll bring you all the action ahead of the race.

Daniel Newell

Rate cut part of ‘technical assumption’

The central bank board members said that some of the increase in underlying inflation in the September quarter was due to temporary factors.

It said it central forecast in the November Statement on Monetary Policy, which is based on a technical assumption of one more rate cut in 2026, has underlying inflation rising above 3 per cent in coming quarters before settling at 2.6 per cent in 2027.

Daniel Newell

Why we’re unlikely to see a rate cut today

Analysts have largely written off the possibility of more mortgage relief on Melbourne Cup Day, but updated economic forecasts could hold the answer to where the bank will move next.

With inflation rising again, the majority of market economists and bond traders are predicting the Reserve Bank will leave the cash rate on hold at 3.6 per cent when the monetary policy board leaves its lock-up on Tuesday.

A surprise surge in inflation last week meant the RBA would “definitely” leave rates on hold, Chartered Accountants chief economist Richard Holden said.

Underlying or trimmed mean inflation, which is the Reserve Bank’s preferred measure, jumped one per cent in the September quarter, which was materially higher than the bank’s forecasts, governor Michele Bullock said.

After cutting rates as soon as underlying inflation returned to its two to three per cent target band, the RBA’s move now looked premature, Professor Holden said.

“I think they’re in a bind and the Australian economy is in a bind,” he said.

“Unemployment is ticking up, but inflation is (also) ticking up, and if there was to be another increase in inflation ... then they might have to start raising rates, which would really signal that they just misread the play terribly.”

Comments

Latest Edition

The Nightly cover for 25-11-2025

Latest Edition

Edition Edition 25 November 202525 November 2025

Not everyone gets their fairytale ending. The Perth Test proves Khawaja has to go.